338  
FXUS64 KFWD 110613  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
113 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.  
 
- LOW STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL  
TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN PARTS OF EASTERN CENTRAL  
TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
/NEW/  
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT A FEW STORMS TO PARTS OF  
OUR EAST TEXAS COUNTIES YESTERDAY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY. THIS  
SHOULD IN TURN BRING A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON,  
ALTHOUGH POPS WILL REMAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL  
ALSO COME DOWN ANOTHER DEGREE FROM YESTERDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL  
ALOFT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE.  
 
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE H5 LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO  
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES NUDGING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
AS A RESULT, POPS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT NORTH AND  
CENTRAL TEXAS BOTH DAYS, ALBEIT STILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. THE  
WESTERLIES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, WITH POPS  
SUBSEQUENTLY GOING BACK DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPERATURES MAY  
LOWER ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE  
INCREASED PRECIP COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER, BUT START GOING BACK  
UP BY THURSDAY.  
 
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS  
ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, MODERATE MLCAPE/DCAPE AND  
INVERTED-V PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY ALLOW  
A COUPLE STORMS EACH DAY TO GET STRONG WITH POTENTIAL  
DOWNBURSTS/MICROBURSTS.  
 
SHAMBURGER  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
/NEW/  
/FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN  
SHIFTING AS A STRONG H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND  
BUILDS WESTWARD INTO TEXAS. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON HOW  
STRONG THE RIDGE GETS OVER US, WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH  
TEMPERATURES RISE AS WELL AS THE EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES.  
FOR NOW, GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN  
TEMPS WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, AND  
ONLY LOW POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST.  
 
SHAMBURGER  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
/NEW/  
/06Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH  
FEW/SCT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO  
12 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.  
 
SHAMBURGER  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 95 78 95 78 / 5 20 10 20 5  
WACO 75 93 76 95 76 / 5 20 10 20 10  
PARIS 74 94 74 93 74 / 5 20 10 30 10  
DENTON 74 96 74 96 75 / 5 30 10 20 5  
MCKINNEY 74 95 75 94 75 / 5 20 10 20 5  
DALLAS 77 96 78 96 78 / 5 20 10 20 5  
TERRELL 74 95 74 95 75 / 5 20 10 20 5  
CORSICANA 75 95 76 96 76 / 5 20 5 20 5  
TEMPLE 74 95 74 96 75 / 5 20 10 20 10  
MINERAL WELLS 72 96 73 97 74 / 10 30 10 30 5  
 
 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab TX Page
Main Text Page