634
FXUS64 KFWD 111814
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
114 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S.
- LOW STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR AREA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM BRIEFLY APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
MOVING, BUT FLOODING IS NOT A MAIN CONCERN DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE MID 90S.
OUR ATTENTION TONIGHT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
OKLAHOMA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND INDECISIVE ON IF
THIS COMPLEX WILL REACH NORTH TEXAS AND WHEN, BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE THE COMPLEX WILL BE WEAKENING IF AND WHEN IT REACHES
NORTH TEXAS, AND THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS AFTER 4 AM INTO
SUNRISE. THERE ARE HINTS IN SEVERAL MODELS THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL
PUSH OR LEAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING, AND THAT BOUNDARY MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS OF THE BOUNDARY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION AND ASSIMILATES THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER EAST TEXAS. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN TOMORROW, BUT THOSE
THAT DO COULD RECEIVE A QUICK 1/3 - 1/2 INCH OF RAIN. GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
ANY STRONGER STORMS.
JLDUNN
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WESTWARD-
DRIFTING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MERGE INTO THE WEAK TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. WEAK ASCENT COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THE DAY'S CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING,
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT, PARTICULARLY
IN ADJACENT AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER.
THOUGH THE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, LINGERING SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK
ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 2-8 PM.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
THE RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
CONFINED MAINLY TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING
THE BRAZOS VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A GULF
COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD, BRINGING A SLOW WARMING
TREND LATE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE ON THE
RIDGE'S EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD EXTEND, BUT THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
SPOTS NEARING 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO OUR FAR EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WITH MOST OF THE AREA TRENDING HOTTER
AND DRIER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
12
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
THE PAST TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR
TUESDAY. WE'LL BE WATCHING A COMPLEX OF STORMS APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
REMAIN AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE
MADE IF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT MAKE IT, OR THE COMPLEX ARRIVES
EARLIER. BY MIDDAY, WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS CHALLENGING AND MAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS. WITH
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS, WE CAN HOPEFULLY NARROW DOWN THE BEST TIMING
FOR VCSH/VCTS ON TUESDAY.
JLDUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 96 77 96 78 95 / 10 10 30 10 30
WACO 95 75 96 76 95 / 10 5 20 10 30
PARIS 95 73 94 73 93 / 20 20 20 10 30
DENTON 97 74 96 74 95 / 10 10 30 20 30
MCKINNEY 96 74 96 75 95 / 10 10 30 10 30
DALLAS 97 77 98 78 96 / 10 10 30 10 30
TERRELL 95 74 96 75 95 / 10 10 20 5 30
CORSICANA 96 76 96 77 97 / 10 5 20 5 30
TEMPLE 95 74 96 74 96 / 10 5 20 10 30
MINERAL WELLS 98 72 96 73 96 / 20 20 30 20 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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