555  
FXUS64 KFWD 112330  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
630 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 90S.  
 
- LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL  
TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF  
EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
/ISSUED 114 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025/  
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF OUR  
COVERAGE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR AREA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN A  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WE  
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM BRIEFLY APPROACHING SEVERE  
LIMITS. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN  
HAZARDS, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW  
MOVING, BUT FLOODING IS NOT A MAIN CONCERN DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND  
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL  
LARGELY BE IN THE MID 90S.  
 
OUR ATTENTION TONIGHT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE ANOTHER COMPLEX  
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND  
OKLAHOMA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND INDECISIVE ON IF  
THIS COMPLEX WILL REACH NORTH TEXAS AND WHEN, BUT GENERALLY  
INDICATE THE COMPLEX WILL BE WEAKENING IF AND WHEN IT REACHES  
NORTH TEXAS, AND THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS AFTER 4 AM INTO  
SUNRISE. THERE ARE HINTS IN SEVERAL MODELS THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL  
PUSH OR LEAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW  
MORNING, AND THAT BOUNDARY MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS OF THE BOUNDARY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
APPROACHES THE REGION AND ASSIMILATES THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
OVER EAST TEXAS. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN TOMORROW, BUT THOSE  
THAT DO COULD RECEIVE A QUICK 1/3 - 1/2 INCH OF RAIN. GUSTY  
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH  
ANY STRONGER STORMS.  
 
JLDUNN  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
/ISSUED 114 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025/  
/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WILL PERSIST OVER  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WESTWARD-  
DRIFTING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MERGE INTO THE WEAK TROUGH  
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. WEAK ASCENT COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL  
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THE DAY'S CONVECTION WILL LIKELY  
SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE  
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING,  
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT, PARTICULARLY  
IN ADJACENT AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER.  
 
THOUGH THE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING  
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, LINGERING SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK  
ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY  
LAYER TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 2-8 PM.  
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN  
HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.  
 
THE RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO  
SHIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES  
CONFINED MAINLY TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING  
THE BRAZOS VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A GULF  
COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD, BRINGING A SLOW WARMING  
TREND LATE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE ON THE  
RIDGE'S EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD EXTEND, BUT THE CURRENT  
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW  
SPOTS NEARING 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION  
WILL BE LIMITED TO OUR FAR EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG  
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WITH MOST OF THE AREA TRENDING HOTTER  
AND DRIER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
12  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
/NEW/  
/00Z TAFS/  
 
RECENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT  
REGARDING UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IN  
SOUTH/CENTRAL OK AND NORTHWESTERN TX WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ALONG  
ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TONIGHT, LIKELY RESULTING IN A NW  
OR N WIND SHIFT FOR MOST D10 AIRPORTS AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR  
VCSH/VCTS AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN  
INTRODUCED AT 09Z WITH FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THESE OUTFLOWS REMAINS QUITE  
UNCERTAIN, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MOST TSRA ACTIVITY WILL  
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE D10 TAF SITES. WHILE A LIGHT  
NORTHERLY WIND COULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW, SOUTHERLY  
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESUME IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH RENEWED CHANCES  
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS D10 AFTER ~22Z. VCTS HAS BEEN  
INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE CURRENT VALID TAF PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THIS POTENTIAL. WACO WILL LIKELY REMAIN REMOVED FROM CONVECTIVE  
IMPACTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WIND SHIFTS DUE TO  
OUTFLOWS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE AIRFIELD.  
 
-STALLEY  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 96 78 95 78 / 10 30 10 30 10  
WACO 75 96 76 95 76 / 5 20 10 30 10  
PARIS 73 94 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 30 10  
DENTON 74 96 74 95 74 / 10 30 20 30 10  
MCKINNEY 74 96 75 95 75 / 10 30 10 30 10  
DALLAS 77 98 78 96 78 / 10 30 10 30 10  
TERRELL 74 96 75 95 75 / 10 20 5 30 10  
CORSICANA 76 96 77 97 77 / 5 20 5 30 5  
TEMPLE 74 96 74 96 75 / 5 20 10 30 10  
MINERAL WELLS 72 96 73 96 72 / 20 30 20 30 10  
 
 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
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