261
FXUS64 KFWD 120538
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- DRIER WEATHER ENTERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF
RIDGING ALOFT OVER FLORIDA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A TROUGH
IN BETWEEN THE TWO OVER THE PLAINS. GETTING A TROUGH OVERHEAD
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS A BIT RARE, AND OFTEN COMES WITH A
GENEROUS SUPPLY OF CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH
THE CURRENT SYSTEM, AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER LIKELY INITIATED NEAR A
WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET (AROUND 20 KTS) SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY GOING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THEMSELVES ARE MOVING VERY
LITTLE, BUT A SLOW SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH
TIME. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY GET NEAR THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE LLJ MIXES OUT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THIS TIME
MORE LIKELY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOCUS FOR INITIATION.
ACTIVITY WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND SLOW MOVING, BUT WILL AGAIN
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET, BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND MORE OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONVECTION WILL
BE ONCE AGAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN EACH CASE, HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO SUCH SLOW STORM MOTIONS, THOUGH GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD OTHERWISE KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL.
30
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE TROUGH
HEADS FOR THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LOWERING THE RAIN
CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND,
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY, THEN NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION. THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WEST AGAIN ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD
BRING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEABREEZE-
INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH TO NEAR THE
METROPLEX AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING. A BRIEF SHIFT TO
NORTH WINDS SHOULD STILL OCCUR EVEN IF STORMS DISSIPATE FARTHER
NORTH. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT APPROACH. A BROAD PRESSURE
GRADIENT, THE PRESENCE OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MULTIPLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY MAKE WINDS VARIABLE AND ERRATIC AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THOUGH THE STORMS THEMSELVES SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THE CURRENT THINKING REGARDING VCTS TIMING IS 09-12Z, AND AGAIN
21-03Z IN THE DFW METROPLEX. WACO MAY NOT SEE ANY IMPACTS UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 94 78 97 79 / 20 30 5 10 5
WACO 76 94 76 96 76 / 10 30 10 20 5
PARIS 74 93 73 94 75 / 20 30 10 20 5
DENTON 73 95 75 98 77 / 20 20 5 10 5
MCKINNEY 74 94 75 96 76 / 20 30 5 10 5
DALLAS 77 96 78 98 79 / 20 30 10 10 5
TERRELL 74 94 75 96 76 / 10 30 10 20 5
CORSICANA 77 96 77 98 77 / 10 30 10 20 5
TEMPLE 74 95 75 97 75 / 10 30 10 20 5
MINERAL WELLS 72 96 73 99 75 / 20 20 5 10 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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