018  
FXUS64 KFWD 121027  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
527 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS  
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.  
 
- STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
- DRIER WEATHER ENTERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN  
AND STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/NEW/  
UPDATE:  
 
COLLAPSING STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND NORTHWEST TEXAS HAVE  
SENT A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTH THROUGH THE I-20  
CORRIDOR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THESE  
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING, WHILE SCATTERED NEW DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY  
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SEVERE  
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY  
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS MORNING TO  
ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS, OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN  
GOOD SHAPE.  
 
30  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF  
RIDGING ALOFT OVER FLORIDA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A TROUGH  
IN BETWEEN THE TWO OVER THE PLAINS. GETTING A TROUGH OVERHEAD  
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS A BIT RARE, AND OFTEN COMES WITH A  
GENEROUS SUPPLY OF CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH  
THE CURRENT SYSTEM, AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT  
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT  
36 TO 48 HOURS.  
 
THE ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER LIKELY INITIATED NEAR A  
WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A  
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET (AROUND 20 KTS) SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY GOING  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THEMSELVES ARE MOVING VERY  
LITTLE, BUT A SLOW SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AS  
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH  
TIME. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY GET NEAR THE  
I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE  
MORNING AS THE LLJ MIXES OUT.  
 
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THIS TIME  
MORE LIKELY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND  
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOCUS FOR INITIATION.  
ACTIVITY WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND SLOW MOVING, BUT WILL AGAIN  
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER  
SUNSET, BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND MORE OUTFLOW  
INTERACTIONS SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY  
NIGHT. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONVECTION WILL  
BE ONCE AGAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL AND  
EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
IN EACH CASE, HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO SUCH SLOW STORM MOTIONS, THOUGH GUSTY  
DOWNBURST WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD OTHERWISE KEEP  
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL.  
 
30  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 1238 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025/  
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/  
 
THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE TROUGH  
HEADS FOR THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LOWERING THE RAIN  
CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE  
WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND,  
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. RAIN  
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE  
ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT  
NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY, THEN NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY  
NIGHT, BRINGING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE  
REGION. THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WEST AGAIN ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD  
BRING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEABREEZE-  
INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
30  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/NEW/  
/12Z TAFS/  
 
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BACK TO THE  
NORTHWEST IN THE METROPLEX AS A SECOND SUCH BOUNDARY PUSHES  
THROUGH. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR RIGHT AROUND THE START OF THE  
PERIOD, SO WILL START THE DFW AREA TAFS OFF WITH NORTHWEST WINDS  
OF 5 TO 10 KT. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE AS  
STORMS RAIN THEMSELVES OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARRANT VCTS FROM 21Z  
TO 03Z FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS. KACT MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL  
TOMORROW BEFORE HAVING ANY IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION.  
 
30  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 94 77 94 78 97 / 30 20 30 5 10  
WACO 95 76 94 76 96 / 20 10 30 10 20  
PARIS 93 74 93 73 94 / 20 20 30 10 20  
DENTON 94 73 95 75 98 / 30 20 20 5 10  
MCKINNEY 94 74 94 75 96 / 30 20 30 5 10  
DALLAS 96 77 96 78 98 / 20 20 30 10 10  
TERRELL 95 74 94 75 96 / 20 10 30 10 20  
CORSICANA 97 77 96 77 98 / 20 10 30 10 20  
TEMPLE 96 74 95 75 97 / 20 10 30 10 20  
MINERAL WELLS 94 72 96 73 99 / 30 20 20 5 10  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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