163
FXUS64 KFWD 121634
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1134 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED.
- DRIER WEATHER ENTERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY AND TOMORROW/
A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEK. OUR REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE, WITH A FEW WEAK TROUGHS INDUCING LIFT
ALOFT. SINCE THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THIS PATTERN FAVORS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
WINDS ARE VERY WEAK, SO THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAIN ARE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY FORECAST BEYOND A FEW HOURS (AT
BEST). SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK SOURCES
OF LIFT, WHICH ARE GENERALLY CREATED BY PREEXISTING SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE FORM OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/GRAVITY WAVES OR MCVS. WHILE
OUR FORECAST DOES ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORWARD PROGRESSION
OF THESE FEATURES BY NUDGING POPS UP AND DOWN, WE HAVE PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE SPECIFIC AREAS THAT WILL OR WON'T RECEIVE
PRECIP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HERE IS THAT ATTEMPT:
THIS MORNING...A MCS MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY RAINING ITSELF OUT TO THE NW OF THE
METROPLEX. IT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS AN MCV. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE RE-DEVELOPMENT TAKES
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z FWD RAOB
SOUNDING, THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY UNCAPPED SO IT SHOULDN'T
TAKE MUCH LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARIES
LEFTOVER FROM THIS MORNING'S MCS AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE
BETWEEN 30-50% FOR AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARIES AND ONLY ABOUT 20%
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARIES (AND LOWEST
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS). IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/CONVECTIVE TRIGGER LOCATION TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
COMANCHE. A FEW WEAKER BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THAT WILL ALSO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA DOES NOT INDICATE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS
DEVELOPING, BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (A FEW COUNTIES EITHER WAY OF I-35).
TOMORROW...SIMILAR TO TODAY, WHATEVER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO THE
MORNING SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE IN THE LATE MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR 30-50% COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS, WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THREATS/HAZARDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE CAPE IS
RELATIVELY SKINNY, SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS. EVEN THEN, THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS QUITE LOW. THE DOWNSIDE TO THIS ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS THAT IT
DOES FAVOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CORES THAT MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THE WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND
PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL OVER A LOCALIZED AREA.
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER, THE HUMIDITY WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW 100S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
FEW SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 105 MARK THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. WHICH LOCATIONS ECLIPSE
THIS MARK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION, SO WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE TO
PLACE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION AT THIS
TIME, BUT WE DID WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110
FOR MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF I-45/I-35E ON BOTH DAYS.
BONNETTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE TROUGH
HEADS FOR THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LOWERING THE RAIN
CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND,
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY, THEN NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION. THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WEST AGAIN ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD
BRING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEABREEZE-
INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING'S MCS TO THE WEST OF THE
D10 HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED, SO OUR ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO WHERE
NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A STRONG COLD POOL OVER WESTERN D10 THAT WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR NEW CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPANSIVE
MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER MAY DELAY NEW STORMS FROM DEVELOPING
UNTIL 20-21Z OR LATER. WE HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF D10 THIS AFTERNOON
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND HOW
THEY'LL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DUE TO THIS, WE
OPTED TO ONLY HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR ON-STATION TS IN THE D10 AND
ACT TAFS. GIVEN THE PREVALENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WE'LL OPT
TO INCLUDE A VRB WIND GROUP IN THE PROB30. THE SAME COLD POOL
EXTENDS INTO WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS, SO WE EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE ACT TERMINAL AS WELL.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE THAT THIS
AREA LINGERS OVER D10 AND ACT, WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD IT STAYS
WEST OF OUR TAF SITES. SIMILAR TRENDS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW, BUT
WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE TAFS
ATTM.
BONNETTE
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 95 77 93 78 97 / 40 30 30 5 10
WACO 95 75 94 76 95 / 40 20 30 10 20
PARIS 94 73 91 73 94 / 30 20 20 10 10
DENTON 95 73 93 74 97 / 40 30 30 5 10
MCKINNEY 94 74 93 74 96 / 40 30 30 5 10
DALLAS 96 77 95 78 98 / 40 30 30 5 10
TERRELL 95 74 93 74 95 / 40 20 30 10 20
CORSICANA 97 76 96 76 97 / 30 20 30 10 20
TEMPLE 96 74 96 75 97 / 30 20 30 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 95 72 95 73 99 / 40 30 20 5 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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