428  
FXUS64 KFWD 130549  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
1249 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY,  
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY  
RAIN ARE EXPECTED.  
 
- DRIER WEATHER ENTERS ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN AND STORM  
CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS  
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
/NEW/  
/THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY BISECTS THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO  
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL INCH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK  
PERIOD, SHIFTING THE BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES A LITTLE  
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST EACH DAY. LAST EVENING'S CONVECTION HAS  
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE INSTABILITY, BUT A SUBTLE  
MOISTURE SURGE AT 925MB MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS  
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL  
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 AND/OR EAST OF I-35,  
WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS AND THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE  
FORCING WILL EXIST. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE MID TO LATE  
MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY  
RAMPS BACK UP. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST  
TEXAS, WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU  
GO.  
 
THE TROUGH'S EXCEPTIONALLY SLOW MOVEMENT MEANS THAT ANOTHER NIGHT  
OF ISOLATED STORMS IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MORE  
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST RAIN  
CHANCES BEING OVER EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. IN EACH CASE, SEVERE  
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50  
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CLOUDS AND  
PRECIPITATION WILL OTHERWISE KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN  
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
30  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
/NEW/  
/THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD/  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS  
TO STRENGTHEN, BUT GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS  
REMAINING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CAP FRIDAY'S POPS AT 20 PERCENT, HOWEVER,  
KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS DRY. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BOOST  
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN  
THE MID AND UPPER 90S.  
 
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY  
SATURDAY. A NORTHWARD SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND THE  
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY BRING A ROUND OF SEABREEZE  
SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE SPOTTY. THE RIDGE  
WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,  
BEFORE ANCHORING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD  
KEEP NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES IN  
PLACE THROUGH DAYS 7-8. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PLACEMENT OF THE  
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL OPEN THE REGION UP TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT  
SYSTEMS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, AND WE WILL LOOK MORE INTO THAT IN  
THE COMING DAYS.  
 
30  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
/NEW/  
/06Z TAFS/  
 
A BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN  
PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY  
SETTLING ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED  
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS  
CENTRAL TEXAS, AND HAVE HENCE ADDED VCSH AT KACT STARTING 12Z.  
VCTS WAS ALSO ADDED AT KACT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE  
ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL  
AND EAST TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE 01-03Z WEDNESDAY  
EVENING.  
 
30  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 96 79 97 79 / 10 10 5 10 5  
WACO 76 94 76 95 76 / 10 20 10 10 5  
PARIS 73 93 75 94 75 / 10 20 10 20 5  
DENTON 74 97 76 97 76 / 5 10 5 10 5  
MCKINNEY 74 95 77 96 77 / 10 10 5 10 5  
DALLAS 78 96 79 97 79 / 10 10 5 10 5  
TERRELL 74 94 76 96 76 / 10 20 5 10 5  
CORSICANA 76 96 77 97 77 / 20 20 5 10 5  
TEMPLE 75 95 75 96 75 / 10 20 5 10 5  
MINERAL WELLS 73 98 75 98 75 / 5 10 5 10 5  
 
 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
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