687
FXUS64 KFWD 131011
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
511 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW,
BUT GUSTY WINDS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR.
- DRIER WEATHER ENTERS ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING
THROUGH TOMORROW. IT LOOKS LIKE AN MCV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE METROPLEX,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A DAMP COMMUTE IS SOME SPOTS THIS MORNING.
DEEPER CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OFF TO THE EAST, AND THE BETTER
STORM CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT MORE INTO EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WERE MADE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
30
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY BISECTS THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL INCH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, SHIFTING THE BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST EACH DAY. LAST EVENING'S CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE INSTABILITY, BUT A SUBTLE
MOISTURE SURGE AT 925MB MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 AND/OR EAST OF I-35,
WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS AND THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL EXIST. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE MID TO LATE
MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
RAMPS BACK UP. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS, WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU
GO.
THE TROUGH'S EXCEPTIONALLY SLOW MOVEMENT MEANS THAT ANOTHER NIGHT
OF ISOLATED STORMS IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES BEING OVER EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. IN EACH CASE, SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OTHERWISE KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1249 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025/
/THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO STRENGTHEN, BUT GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS
REMAINING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CAP FRIDAY'S POPS AT 20 PERCENT, HOWEVER,
KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS DRY. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWARD SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY BRING A ROUND OF SEABREEZE
SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE SPOTTY. THE RIDGE
WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE ANCHORING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES IN
PLACE THROUGH DAYS 7-8. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL OPEN THE REGION UP TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT
SYSTEMS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, AND WE WILL LOOK MORE INTO THAT IN
THE COMING DAYS.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
AN MCV HAS KICKED OFF A CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, WHICH
REQUIRED AN ADDITION OF VCTS WITH THE 09Z AMENDMENTS. IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER WILL BE NEEDED BASED ON
THE SPOTTY NATURE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. WILL KEEP VCTS GOING
THROUGH 15Z IN THE METROPLEX, AFTER WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTH. WILL START VCTS AT 16Z FOR KACT, WHICH MAY NEED TO
WAIT FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE SPOTTY CONVECTION.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 93 78 96 79 97 / 30 10 10 5 10
WACO 93 76 94 76 95 / 30 10 20 10 10
PARIS 92 73 93 75 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
DENTON 93 74 97 76 97 / 20 5 10 5 10
MCKINNEY 92 74 95 77 96 / 20 10 10 5 10
DALLAS 94 78 96 79 97 / 30 10 10 5 10
TERRELL 93 74 94 76 96 / 30 10 20 5 10
CORSICANA 94 76 96 77 97 / 30 20 20 5 10
TEMPLE 93 75 95 75 96 / 30 10 20 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 94 73 98 75 98 / 20 5 10 5 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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