452
FXUS64 KFWD 131739
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW,
BUT GUSTY WINDS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR.
- DRIER WEATHER ENTERS ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS
THIS MORNING'S THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS, AS OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SLOW-MOVING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND ISOLATED 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH A CUMULUS FIELD IS STARTING TO
RE-DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL LARGELY
WANE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
ROUND OF EARLY MORNING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AND IN
THE VICINITY OF A REMNANT MCV.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF TOMORROW, PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND ALONG/EAST OF I-35. CLOUD COVER AND A PREVAILING
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP BELOW- TO NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
LANGFELD
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/FRIDAY AND BEYOND/
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MINUS SOME LOW
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MIDWEST SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OPENING THE DOOR FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY PLACING US BACK UNDER MORE
ACTIVE, NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DAILY, AREA-WIDE RAIN CHANCES BY
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
LANGFELD
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNING'S THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAVE SHIFTED
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH -RA AND VCTS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KACT.
THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF I-20 AND NEAR THE RED RIVER HIGHLIGHTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTS IN D10 ARE TOO
LOW TO EVEN INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF AT THIS MOMENT. WE WILL BE
MONITORING HOW THIS CU FIELD EVOLVES, AND AN EVENTUAL VCTS MENTION
MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TSRA WITHIN
D10.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT CIGS NEAR
6-7KFT AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.
LANGFELD
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 93 77 96 79 97 / 20 5 10 5 5
WACO 93 75 94 77 95 / 40 10 10 5 5
PARIS 92 73 94 74 95 / 30 5 10 5 20
DENTON 93 74 97 77 98 / 20 0 10 0 5
MCKINNEY 92 74 96 76 97 / 20 5 10 5 10
DALLAS 94 77 96 79 97 / 30 5 10 5 5
TERRELL 92 74 95 76 96 / 30 10 20 5 10
CORSICANA 93 76 96 77 97 / 40 20 20 5 10
TEMPLE 93 74 96 75 97 / 30 10 20 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 94 72 98 75 98 / 20 5 10 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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