401
FXUS64 KFWD 282359
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
659 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER
CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 113 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
THE REGION REMAINS PLANTED IN BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST AND THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVERTOP THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FLOW REGIME IS
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NW-SE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY, SENDING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THE REST OF TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
LOW-LEVELS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN OUR
AREA RESULTS IN COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE TRANS PECOS
AND BIG BEND AREAS, AND WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL REMAIN TRUE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE IN THE 90S
FOR MOST TODAY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHO WILL COME IN A LITTLE
COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
WHILE CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE WISHY-WASHY WITH THE FRONTAL
TIMING TONIGHT, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE FRONT AND ANY
ASSOCIATED STORMS TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND 5-6 PM. WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINING WITHIN THE GRIP OF THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE, COVERAGE WILL REMAIN A BIT MORE SPOTTY FOR MOST OF
OUR AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THEY
WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER DOWN TO NEAR THE
I-20 CORRIDOR, WITH HIGHEST SEVERE CHANCES IN OUR NORTHEAST. AS
THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL FEATURE 1500-2500 J/KG OF
CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED. ADDITIONALLY, LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND PWATS
BETWEEN 1.75-2" WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. ALL THIS
SAID, THE MORE ROBUST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. TIMING FOR THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN 5PM-11PM. COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THEIR
INTENSITY WILL DECLINE AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE DAY FRIDAY, REACHING
THE DFW METRO AND I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM TONIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY SAG THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE FRONT
STILL DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STEEPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S-LOW 90S IN NORTH
TEXAS TO THE LOW-MID 90S IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL STILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS THAT MAY
REACH THE 2 DAY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR HEAT INDEX (105+) TODAY
AND TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR
NOT THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN WHAT
THE NBM HAS BROUGHT IN, WHICH MEANS WE ARE MIXING OUT MORE
EFFICIENTLY THAN FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD
POOLS FROM CONVECTION CREATE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. AS
SUCH, HAVE FOREGONE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
NONETHELESS, IT'LL BE HOT TODAY AND TOMORROW IN CENTRAL TEXAS, SO
MAKE SURE TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED.
PRATER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 113 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025/
/FRIDAY EVENING ONWARD/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE
TO OUR WEST AND THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING, MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED STORM COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN
COOLED AIR AND CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST, THOUGH SOME AREAS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 90S ON SATURDAY. LOOKING
INTO NEXT WEEK, WE'LL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT A
DIGGING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BOLSTER THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE SHUNTING THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MID-LATE
NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE CPC OUTLOOK
CONTINUES TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER, SO WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AS WE TRANSITION OUT OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER INTO
METEOROLOGICAL FALL!
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
A WEST TO EAST-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH D10 AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
EVENING. NEW INDIVIDUAL CELLS CONTINUE TO FORM IN AND NEAR THE
BAND, YET THE OVERALL TREND OF THE ACTIVITY IS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
THE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE D10 AREA BY
AROUND 01-02Z, THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A FEW ELEMENTS OF THIS LINE MAY APPROACH
WACO OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT THEIR PROGRESSION
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF VCTS AT KACT OVERNIGHT.
A MARKED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED SOUTHWARD THROUGH D10, AND IN
ITS WAKE A NORTHEASTLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WIND REGIME, AT SPEEDS
OF 8-12 KNOTS, WILL PERSIST AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z.
SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, BUT A
LAYER OF SCT-BKN015 CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AFTER 10Z, CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z.
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS BY 15Z, WITH SOME
SCATTERING OF THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BACK
GRADUALLY TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT SPEEDS OF
8-14 KNOTS FROM 18Z TO 00Z, AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND
USHERS IN HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE GREATER D10 AREA
AFTER 16Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS IS NOT
SUFFICIENT TO MENTION VCTS AT THIS TIME. THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE
ADDED TO THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR FRIDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
PACKAGES, HOWEVER.
BRADSHAW
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 90 73 85 72 / 50 30 30 50 40
WACO 77 95 75 89 73 / 20 30 30 50 50
PARIS 68 79 68 82 68 / 70 50 40 40 30
DENTON 71 88 70 85 70 / 50 30 30 50 40
MCKINNEY 71 86 70 84 70 / 60 30 30 50 40
DALLAS 75 90 73 86 73 / 50 30 30 50 40
TERRELL 74 89 71 85 70 / 50 40 40 50 40
CORSICANA 77 93 74 87 73 / 30 40 40 50 40
TEMPLE 76 96 73 91 71 / 10 30 30 50 50
MINERAL WELLS 72 92 71 86 70 / 30 30 30 60 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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