191
FXUS64 KFWD 290555
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1255 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DURATION OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY AWARE
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING.
- FOLLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF MIDNIGHT, A BATCH OF STEADILY DECAYING ELEVATED CONVECTION
WAS MOVING ESE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ROOTED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION, WITH THE SURFACE FRONT HAVING
PROGRESSED SOUTH OF I-20 INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY WANES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST
ALONG THE 850MB FRONTAL SURFACE WHICH IS DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. WHILE MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, A FEW HOURS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES ROUGHLY NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON LINE FROM THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH A MAJORITY OF
THE DAYTIME AS POST-FRONTAL STRATUS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA, REINFORCED BY FAVORABLE ENE WINDS. THIS ANOMALOUS
OCCURRENCE FOR LATE AUGUST SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF HOLDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON, AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S, AND WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE DURING PEAK
HEATING. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, A FEW STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CWA BY
THE EVENING, WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF TRANQUIL WEATHER
TONIGHT.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SATURDAY ONWARD/
LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WHICH COULD EVEN RESULT IN A
WASHOUT OF OUTDOOR PLANS AT TIMES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM
WEST TEXAS MAY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS IT ADVANCES ESE ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL STILL BE DRAPED THROUGH THE CWA. THE
PARENT DISTURBANCE WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
COMPLEX WILL ALSO SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT
AHEAD OF ANY SUCH COMPLEX AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. COVERAGE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY, WITH
CONVECTION HAVING A TENDENCY TO ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE DAYTIME. ONCE AGAIN, AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF HOLDING MANY AREAS TO THE LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH COULD BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE BIG COUNTRY EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL POSE A RISK FOR FLOODING, WITH SOME HIGHER RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES
ACROSS SOME OF OUR WESTERN ZONES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THEN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY, WITH PLACEMENT DICTATED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PRECEDING CONVECTION. A SIMILAR SETUP CAN BE EXPECTED HEADING
INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW STORM CHANCES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH STRONG/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. DESPITE A LACK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS (ESPECIALLY BOATERS
AND CAMPERS) WILL WANT TO REMAIN AWARE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD WITHIN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A
DRIER POST-FRONTAL SOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, A SMALLER
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE DOES LINGER ASCENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LOW PRECIP CHANCES. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD IN FAVOR OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT, LESS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT ITS EFFECT ON AMBIENT TEMPERATURES, AND
THE LATE SUMMER SUN WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
AND 90S THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
AS OF 06Z, THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
D10. WHILE MOST OF THESE WILL MISS THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES,
IMPACTS DUE TO NEARBY TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EAST AND EVENTUALLY WANES LATER
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A BRIEF NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AT 15-20 KTS IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY, AND THIS MAY EXIST THROUGH 07-08Z
BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO THEIR PREVAILING ENE DIRECTION. FOLLOWING
THIS CONVECTION, IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN QUICKLY WHICH
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEIGHTS MAY
EVEN BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR, ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
ADVERTISE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ONLY MEAGER IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME, WITH PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF
WINDOW OF SCATTERING TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE
IFR CIGS FILL BACK IN TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR THE VERY END OF THE VALID PERIOD, AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS WITH SHRA IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF FOR NOW.
FOR WACO, THE TAF SITE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND BEFORE A
SHIFT TO ENE OCCURS LATER TODAY. THE FRONT MAY CAUSE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY AFTER 19Z,
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL,
WITH A CHANCE FOR LOWER CIGS ARRIVING JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 81 72 83 72 / 50 20 30 70 50
WACO 78 94 74 86 72 / 20 40 30 60 60
PARIS 68 74 68 81 68 / 80 60 20 40 30
DENTON 72 82 70 82 69 / 50 20 30 70 50
MCKINNEY 72 78 70 82 69 / 50 20 30 60 40
DALLAS 75 81 73 83 73 / 50 20 30 70 50
TERRELL 73 81 71 83 70 / 50 30 30 60 40
CORSICANA 76 87 74 84 72 / 30 40 40 70 50
TEMPLE 76 94 74 87 72 / 10 30 20 60 50
MINERAL WELLS 73 85 71 85 69 / 50 10 40 80 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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