264
FXUS64 KFWD 291927
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DURATION OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING.
- FOLLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SATURDAY/
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. FOR NORTH
TEXAS, DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS DEFLECTED MUCH OF THE INSOLATION,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (20+ DEGF COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY). THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD,
MOVING THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING.
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO QUICK PONDING, HOWEVER,
OVERALL FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AT AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM AS TODAY'S
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE PRIOR TO SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS COMPLEX WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MIGRATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH BETTER FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF OUR
REGION, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. NONETHELESS, EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. INCREASED NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH,
HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES. SIMILAR TO TODAY'S WEATHER, TOMORROWS'S STORMS WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
THE PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THOSE CELEBRATING OUTDOORS
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND, STAY WEATHER AWARE AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MONDAY.
HERNANDEZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE BIG COUNTRY EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL POSE A RISK FOR FLOODING, WITH SOME HIGHER RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES
ACROSS SOME OF OUR WESTERN ZONES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THEN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY, WITH PLACEMENT DICTATED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PRECEDING CONVECTION. A SIMILAR SETUP CAN BE EXPECTED HEADING INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW STORM CHANCES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH STRONG/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. DESPITE A LACK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS (ESPECIALLY BOATERS
AND CAMPERS) WILL WANT TO REMAIN AWARE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD WITHIN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A
DRIER POST-FRONTAL SOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, A SMALLER
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE DOES LINGER ASCENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LOW PRECIP CHANCES. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD IN FAVOR OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT, LESS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT ITS EFFECT ON AMBIENT TEMPERATURES, AND
THE LATE SUMMER SUN WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
AND 90S THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER THE BOUT OF LIFR/MIST THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENTS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON NEAR KACT.
TONIGHT, AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE COOLS, A RETURN TO IFR IS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. THE IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE D10 AIRSPACE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. ANY
RAIN SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
HERNANDEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 72 84 73 82 / 20 20 40 60 70
WACO 92 74 85 72 81 / 40 30 50 60 80
PARIS 74 68 84 69 83 / 40 10 10 30 40
DENTON 78 70 83 70 84 / 20 20 40 60 70
MCKINNEY 79 70 83 71 83 / 20 20 30 50 60
DALLAS 82 73 85 73 83 / 20 20 40 50 70
TERRELL 81 71 85 71 82 / 30 20 30 40 70
CORSICANA 87 74 88 74 83 / 40 30 40 50 70
TEMPLE 96 74 88 71 83 / 50 30 40 50 80
MINERAL WELLS 81 71 84 70 82 / 10 20 60 70 90
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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