566
FXUS64 KFWD 301047
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.
- WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD STAY AWARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- FOLLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 120 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025/
/THROUGH SUNDAY/
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE IMPACTED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SUNDAY FEATURING THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, ESPECIALLY CAMPERS AND
BOATERS, SHOULD STAY AWARE OF THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN WEST TEXAS MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY
IMPINGE ON OUR WESTERN ZONES YET THIS MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN A QUICK EXPANSION OF
LOW STRATUS AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. FURTHER ASCENT WILL
CULMINATE IN DEEPER ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND EAST TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW WITH ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY, BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE OF CONCERN AS SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
TRAIN IN A NW-SE FASHION. THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES THIS MORNING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT IT SHOULD PRIMARILY
TAKE SHAPE NEAR OR EAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL VACATE THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT THEN OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY DURING PEAK HEATING THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S DUE
TO LESS PREVALENT CLOUD COVER, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD
COVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE
LOWER 80S.
FOLLOWING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY, BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE WITH THE DISTURBANCE'S
DEPARTURE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME MULTI-INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OR EVEN ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER, PINNING DOWN AN AREA MORE
FAVORABLE THAN ANOTHER FOR A HIGHER FLOOD RISK IS NOT FEASIBLE AT
THIS TIME RANGE. WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER, HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRY TIME LATER IN THE DAY FOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACTIVITIES.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 120 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025/
/MONDAY ONWARD/
THE OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WASHED
OUT AND DIFFUSE HEADING INTO MONDAY, BUT UPSTREAM TROUGHING AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL SUPPORT LOW RAIN CHANCES ON
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN COMPARISON TO SUNDAY, AND MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
80S FOR MANY AREAS WITH LESS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS.
A MUCH DEEPER EAST CONUS TROUGH, CERTAINLY ANOMALOUS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER, IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REGIME WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WHILE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
EXIST WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF, MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARRIVING WITHIN NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD SEND ONE OR MORE STORM
COMPLEXES TOWARDS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO SOUTHEASTERLY, AND LOW POPS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HIGHS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH A COUPLE NIGHTS OF LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND EAST
TEXAS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIKELY WITHIN D10 THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER WILL INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY AS STRONGER ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. FOR WACO,
STORM CHANCES WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON RATHER THAN THIS
MORNING BEFORE ACTIVITY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, IFR CIGS AND PERIODICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR OCCURS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CIGS WILL FILL BACK IN QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT, WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 83 73 83 71 86 / 70 70 90 30 30
WACO 90 73 83 71 86 / 60 60 90 50 40
PARIS 84 70 82 68 83 / 20 40 50 30 20
DENTON 82 70 83 69 86 / 60 70 80 40 20
MCKINNEY 82 71 83 69 85 / 50 60 80 30 20
DALLAS 84 73 84 72 86 / 70 70 80 30 30
TERRELL 83 71 82 69 85 / 60 60 80 30 30
CORSICANA 85 73 83 71 87 / 70 60 80 40 40
TEMPLE 91 73 85 69 88 / 40 50 90 50 50
MINERAL WELLS 85 71 83 69 86 / 70 80 90 30 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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