159
FXUS64 KFWD 302352
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
652 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
AREA THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
STAY AWARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALIZED
FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- FOLLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO, AND WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS SOON. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN NOW BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FOLLOWED BY RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE
900MB LEVEL AND SUB-SEVERE, THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GRID
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WERE
NEEDED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND NEW GUIDANCE, OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
30
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/
THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED
EAST/SOUTHEAST THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
NOW EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS OF MIDDAY. ACROSS NORTH AND EAST
TEXAS, A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE PICKED UP AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN
TODAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE NW-SE ORIENTED STORMS.
ATTENTION WILL START TO SHIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, WHERE A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER THAN THE NORTH TX STORMS THIS MORNING. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
20-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH ANY ROBUST CELLS CAPABLE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
(40-60%) AS WE ENTER PEAK HEATING FOR THOSE GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE-WACO-PALESTINE LINE. MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH STORM DIRECTION PREDOMINANTLY TOWARDS
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, OUTSIDE OF ANY INFLUENCE WITH STORM INTERACTION
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, LEAVING MOST OF TONIGHT LARGELY QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT
MAIN ROUND ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
STUNTED BY CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 380. ELSEWHERE, IT'LL CLIMB
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND
TEMPLE-KILLEEN AREA.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL AID IN AN
ADDITIONAL WAVE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SHIFTING THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF IT, BROAD ASCENT ALONG A SIMILARLY ORIENTED
NW-SE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS AS EARLY AS 2 AM, AT WHICH POINT THE MAIN COMPLEX OF
STORMS SHOULD STILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK.
STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH AROUND 5 AM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. THE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL BE OF HIGHER CONCERN FOR THE AREAS THAT END
UP RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST RAINS TODAY. OTHERWISE, SOME CLEARING
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE STORMS TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
GORDON
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 136 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025/
UPDATE:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH
THE DISCUSSION BELOW IN LINE WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. WHILE
ISOLATED STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY (20%
CHANCE), THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING LABOR DAY STORMS WILL
BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS (~30-50% CHANCE). NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN,
BUT THOSE THAT DO MAY BE IMPACTED BY ADDITIONAL BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS.
GORDON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/MONDAY ONWARD/
THE OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WASHED
OUT AND DIFFUSE HEADING INTO MONDAY, BUT UPSTREAM TROUGHING AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL SUPPORT LOW RAIN CHANCES ON
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN COMPARISON TO SUNDAY, AND MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
80S FOR MANY AREAS WITH LESS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS.
A MUCH DEEPER EAST CONUS TROUGH, CERTAINLY ANOMALOUS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER, IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REGIME WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WHILE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
EXIST WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF, MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARRIVING WITHIN NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD SEND ONE OR MORE STORM
COMPLEXES TOWARDS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO SOUTHEASTERLY, AND LOW POPS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HIGHS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH A COUPLE NIGHTS OF LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT ALL TAF SITES WHILE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS HAS DEVELOPED. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPING AREAWIDE
AROUND 03Z. FOR THE DFW METROPLEX: FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR
WILL OCCUR ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS (31/10Z). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX, BUT WILL KEEP THE VCTS IN FOR
THE TIME BEING AND GET A GOOD LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE LATER THIS
EVENING BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. IFR WILL ALSO DEVELOP 09-10Z AT
KACT, BUT TS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 12-14Z. PRECIPITATION WILL
AGAIN WANE AROUND MIDDAY IN THE METROPLEX AND AFTER 31/21Z AT
KACT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE SLOW, PERHAPS NOT UNTIL 22-00Z
SUNDAY EVENING.
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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 82 71 86 70 / 80 90 40 20 10
WACO 73 81 71 85 69 / 70 90 60 40 10
PARIS 70 79 68 84 66 / 50 60 30 20 20
DENTON 70 83 68 86 67 / 80 80 30 20 10
MCKINNEY 71 81 68 85 67 / 70 80 40 20 10
DALLAS 73 82 71 86 71 / 70 90 40 20 10
TERRELL 72 80 69 85 67 / 60 80 40 20 10
CORSICANA 74 82 71 86 70 / 70 90 50 30 5
TEMPLE 72 85 69 86 68 / 60 80 60 50 10
MINERAL WELLS 71 83 69 86 66 / 80 90 30 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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