463
FXUS64 KFWD 310611
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
111 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
AREA THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
STAY AWARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALIZED
FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- FOLLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE CENTRAL TEXAS QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
HAS DELIVERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE, WITH
LITTLE REMAINING THERMODYNAMIC CONTRAST. HOWEVER, IN THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM RIPPLES
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND
AND AFTER DAYBREAK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20, WITH COVERAGE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-4" POSSIBLE, BUT
INSTANCES OF FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT ANY
FORMAL WATCH PRODUCT AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT RESULTING FROM HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF A STRONGER CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE. WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD TO THE
LOW/MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
IMPINGES ON NORTH TEXAS.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY ONWARD/
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LABOR
DAY, ALTHOUGH RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY TO STAY DRY TO END
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DISORGANIZED
AND DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION, AS WELL AS MODEST HEIGHT FALLS FROM A STRONG
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS OF 20-40% WILL
BE ADVERTISED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME BEFORE RAIN CHANCES COME
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWING AN EVENTUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF. HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT
AND LESS HUMID MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING LOCALLY. THIS REGIME WILL SEND AN ADDITIONAL
FRONT OR TWO TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND INTO THE 90S
PRIOR TO THEIR ARRIVAL. THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DUE TO VEERING
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS PATTERN COULD ALSO
SEND ONE OR MORE DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, OR SATURDAY, AND
LOW POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY FOR THIS
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO BUILD TOWARDS THE TAF SITES FROM THE
EAST AS OF 06Z, WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM
THE PREDAWN HOURS INTO THE MORNING AT ALL AIRPORTS. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER ~11Z THIS MORNING
PRIMARILY NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE D10 TAF SITES. WILL RETAIN A FEW
HOURS OF VCTS AT DFW AREA AIRPORTS, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISPLACED FROM THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. WACO IS MORE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY NEARBY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS FOR A SPAN OF SEVERAL HOURS,
BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR
IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF VCSH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
FOLLOWING A STEADY LIFTING/SCATTERING OF CIGS TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER PRESENT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT 4-8 KTS, AND WILL PERIODICALLY
FLUCTUATE FROM ENE TO SE.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 84 71 88 71 / 40 50 40 20 5
WACO 73 83 71 90 69 / 60 80 50 40 5
PARIS 71 84 69 85 67 / 40 40 20 20 10
DENTON 70 84 69 87 67 / 40 50 30 30 5
MCKINNEY 71 83 69 87 67 / 50 50 30 20 5
DALLAS 73 85 73 89 72 / 40 50 40 20 5
TERRELL 71 83 70 89 68 / 50 60 30 20 5
CORSICANA 73 84 72 88 69 / 50 70 40 30 5
TEMPLE 73 84 69 88 69 / 50 80 50 50 5
MINERAL WELLS 71 86 69 88 67 / 50 60 30 30 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page