310
FXUS64 KFWD 311043
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
AREA THE REST OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
- FOLLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE, HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS
AND BEGINNING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. RATES AS HIGH AS 2.5" PER
HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED, AND THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
RESULTING IN FLOODING WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-5" LIKELY
OCCURRING WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH TODAY. FORTUNATELY, THE HIGHEST
RAIN TOTALS SHOULD OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE LARGELY MISSED OUT ON
RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND DRIER SOILS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HANDLING SOME INITIAL RAINFALL BEFORE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF CAN
BEGIN.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE CENTRAL TEXAS QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
HAS DELIVERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE, WITH
LITTLE REMAINING THERMODYNAMIC CONTRAST. HOWEVER, IN THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM RIPPLES
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND
AND AFTER DAYBREAK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20, WITH COVERAGE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-4" POSSIBLE, BUT
INSTANCES OF FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT ANY
FORMAL WATCH PRODUCT AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT RESULTING FROM HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF A STRONGER CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE. WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD TO THE
LOW/MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
IMPINGES ON NORTH TEXAS.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 111 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025/
/MONDAY ONWARD/
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LABOR
DAY, ALTHOUGH RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY TO STAY DRY TO END
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DISORGANIZED
AND DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION, AS WELL AS MODEST HEIGHT FALLS FROM A STRONG
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS OF 20-40% WILL
BE ADVERTISED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME BEFORE RAIN CHANCES COME
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWING AN EVENTUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF. HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT
AND LESS HUMID MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING LOCALLY. THIS REGIME WILL SEND AN ADDITIONAL
FRONT OR TWO TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND INTO THE 90S
PRIOR TO THEIR ARRIVAL. THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DUE TO VEERING
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS PATTERN COULD ALSO
SEND ONE OR MORE DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, OR SATURDAY, AND
LOW POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY FOR THIS
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
THE LOW STRATUS DECK IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS D10 TAF
SITES AS OF 11Z, BUT CIGS AT LOW MVFR HEIGHTS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
MORNING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE D10 TAF SITES THIS MORNING, AND THEREFORE WILL
ELIMINATE THE VCTS MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATER
CHANCES FOR TS IMPACTS IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. FOR WACO, SEVERAL
HOURS OF NEARBY TSRA ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER THE CLEARING OF THIS MORNING'S STRATUS, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBSEQUENT TAFS. A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF
PERIOD, AND THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY RENEWED
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 71 88 71 89 / 50 40 20 5 5
WACO 83 71 90 69 92 / 80 50 40 5 5
PARIS 84 69 85 67 85 / 40 20 20 10 10
DENTON 84 69 87 67 89 / 50 30 30 5 5
MCKINNEY 83 69 87 67 88 / 50 30 20 5 5
DALLAS 85 73 89 72 90 / 50 40 20 5 5
TERRELL 83 70 89 68 90 / 60 30 20 5 10
CORSICANA 84 72 88 69 90 / 80 40 30 5 5
TEMPLE 84 69 88 69 93 / 80 50 50 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 86 69 88 67 90 / 60 30 30 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ135-142>148-156>162-174-
175.
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