648
FXUS64 KFWD 311828
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
128 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TOMORROW.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WHERE
ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF 1 OF 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
- FOLLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLIER
COMPLEX NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS STILL ONGOING BEHIND THE MAIN BAND FARTHER EAST,
WHILE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TO THE NORTH, A FEW ECHOES HAVE ALREADY
APPEARED ON RADAR ALONG THE RED RIVER/NE OF THE METROPLEX.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
EXISTS IN AN AREA OF LITTLE TO NO CAPPING. WITHIN THIS, A POCKET
OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS SET UP, WITH 20-35
KTS IN PLACE PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAKLY
ORGANIZED CELLS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LIKELY
MERGING INTO CLUSTERS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND SKIES
CONTINUE CLEARING. THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY ROTATE, BUT ANYTHING
MORE SUPERCELLULAR IS UNLIKELY GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND POCKETS
OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB FURTHER REDUCING ANY ALREADY LIMITED
UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY PERSISTING (20-30%) OVERNIGHT. THIS IS MOSTLY
FAVORABLE FOR EASTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING SOILS, PARTICULARLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL TODAY. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A NEAR N-S ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS
EXPECTED TO SHARPEN AND BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, AS EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROVIDE ASCENT. SOME OF THE RECENT CAM GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS ILL-
DEFINED BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA BY
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT/TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG IT
(20-40%), MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
DURING THE MORNING. ISOLATED COVERAGE (20%) WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, TOPPING OFF
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
GORDON
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT SAGGING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A STRAY SHOWER DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 ALONG
THE RED RIVER, BUT ANY CHANCES OF THIS REMAINS LOW (10-20%).
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY PRIMARILY USHERING IN
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. CURRENT PWAT OVER THE AREA IS GREATER
THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH TODAY'S 12Z FWD
SOUNDING MEASURING RIGHT AT 2". BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, THE
DRIER AIR WILL WILL DROP PWATS TO 1-1.4" ACROSS THE AREA, BACK
DOWN TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. MEANWHILE, ON WEDNESDAY, A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE ONTARIO PROVINCE AND DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. LATE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS , APPROACHING OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT
AND WILL FAIL TO PROVIDE ANY COOLDOWN. IT WILL HOWEVER, BRING
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES BACK TO WESTERN NORTH TX (10-20%) AS A
WEAKENING COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MAY APPROACH FROM OKLAHOMA.
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FRONT AIDING IN COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. GUIDANCE IS ALMOST EVENLY SPLIT ON THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED GIVEN IT'S DAY 7. ABOUT 60%
OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONT ENTIRELY TO THE NORTH OR
STALLS IT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY,
LOW POPS ARE ADVERTISED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. IN TERMS OF ANY COOL
DOWN, NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS IMPRESSIVE (OR AGGRESSIVELY "FALL-
LIKE") BY ANY MEANS, WITH THE MIDDLE 50TH OF THE LREF GUIDANCE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 80-90 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE
NBM IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN ITS DISTRIBUTION.
GORDON
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO
VFR IN THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. VCTS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE D10
SITES FROM 19-22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, WITH VCSH CONTINUING AT ACT
THROUGH 23Z. FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD, VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY A FEW STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS AND
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN
4-6 KTS. COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW, SO HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL SITES DURING THE MORNING. SPOTTY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AS WELL, BUT THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THIS DEVELOPING, SO A TEMPO GROUP HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH REFINEMENTS NEEDED
IN FUTURE ISSUANCES. OTHERWISE, FOR KACT'S TEMPO, MVFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW
POTENTIAL OF FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT.
GORDON
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 85 73 88 71 89 / 50 20 40 5 10
WACO 82 72 86 69 92 / 80 30 40 5 5
PARIS 85 70 86 66 86 / 40 20 20 20 20
DENTON 85 71 88 67 88 / 40 20 30 5 10
MCKINNEY 84 71 87 68 88 / 50 20 30 5 10
DALLAS 85 74 88 72 90 / 50 20 40 5 10
TERRELL 83 71 86 69 89 / 60 20 30 5 10
CORSICANA 84 73 88 70 92 / 80 20 30 5 10
TEMPLE 82 71 87 69 93 / 70 30 40 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 85 70 88 67 90 / 60 20 20 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.
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