803
FXUS64 KFWD 312342
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TOMORROW.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS WHERE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
- FOLLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH EARLIER AS HEAVY RAINS HAD MOVED OUT OF
CENTRAL TEXAS, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE,
MADE CONSIDERABLE UPDATES TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG
ALSO APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS, NEAR-ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND WET GROUND.
SHAMBURGER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLIER
COMPLEX NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS STILL ONGOING BEHIND THE MAIN BAND FARTHER EAST,
WHILE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TO THE NORTH, A FEW ECHOES HAVE ALREADY
APPEARED ON RADAR ALONG THE RED RIVER/NE OF THE METROPLEX.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
EXISTS IN AN AREA OF LITTLE TO NO CAPPING. WITHIN THIS, A POCKET
OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS SET UP, WITH 20-35
KTS IN PLACE PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAKLY
ORGANIZED CELLS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LIKELY
MERGING INTO CLUSTERS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND SKIES
CONTINUE CLEARING. THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY ROTATE, BUT ANYTHING
MORE SUPERCELLULAR IS UNLIKELY GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND POCKETS
OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB FURTHER REDUCING ANY ALREADY LIMITED
UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY PERSISTING (20-30%) OVERNIGHT. THIS IS MOSTLY
FAVORABLE FOR EASTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING SOILS, PARTICULARLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL TODAY. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A NEAR N-S ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS
EXPECTED TO SHARPEN AND BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, AS EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROVIDE ASCENT. SOME OF THE RECENT CAM GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS ILL-
DEFINED BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA BY
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT/TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG IT
(20-40%), MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
DURING THE MORNING. ISOLATED COVERAGE (20%) WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, TOPPING OFF
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
GORDON
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 128 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025/
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT SAGGING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A STRAY SHOWER DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 ALONG
THE RED RIVER, BUT ANY CHANCES OF THIS REMAINS LOW (10-20%).
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY PRIMARILY USHERING IN
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. CURRENT PWAT OVER THE AREA IS GREATER
THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH TODAY'S 12Z FWD
SOUNDING MEASURING RIGHT AT 2". BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, THE
DRIER AIR WILL WILL DROP PWATS TO 1-1.4" ACROSS THE AREA, BACK
DOWN TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. MEANWHILE, ON WEDNESDAY, A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE ONTARIO PROVINCE AND DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. LATE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS , APPROACHING OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT
AND WILL FAIL TO PROVIDE ANY COOLDOWN. IT WILL HOWEVER, BRING
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES BACK TO WESTERN NORTH TX (10-20%) AS A
WEAKENING COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MAY APPROACH FROM OKLAHOMA.
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FRONT AIDING IN COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. GUIDANCE IS ALMOST EVENLY SPLIT ON THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED GIVEN IT'S DAY 7. ABOUT 60%
OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONT ENTIRELY TO THE NORTH OR
STALLS IT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY,
LOW POPS ARE ADVERTISED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. IN TERMS OF ANY COOL
DOWN, NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS IMPRESSIVE (OR AGGRESSIVELY "FALL-
LIKE") BY ANY MEANS, WITH THE MIDDLE 50TH OF THE LREF GUIDANCE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 80-90 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE
NBM IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN ITS DISTRIBUTION.
GORDON
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT METROPLEX
AIRPORTS THIS EVENING, WITH HRRR SUGGESTING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
D10 THROUGH 06Z OR SO. OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BRING TEMPO
MVFR VISIBILITY TO A FEW AIRPORTS, BUT IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 15Z ON
MONDAY AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR VCTS. FOR
KACT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT FOG WILL BRING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE 10-14Z TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z WITH MORE VCSH ANTICIPATED.
AT ALL AIRPORTS, LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY WITH A WEAK FROPA ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 88 71 89 68 / 30 40 5 10 0
WACO 72 86 69 92 67 / 30 40 5 5 0
PARIS 70 86 66 86 64 / 30 20 20 20 0
DENTON 70 88 67 88 64 / 30 30 5 10 0
MCKINNEY 71 87 68 88 64 / 30 30 5 10 0
DALLAS 73 88 72 90 69 / 30 40 5 10 0
TERRELL 70 86 69 89 65 / 30 30 5 10 0
CORSICANA 72 88 70 92 69 / 30 30 5 10 0
TEMPLE 70 87 69 93 68 / 30 40 5 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 69 88 67 90 64 / 30 20 5 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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