497
FXUS64 KFWD 011041
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
541 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RESUMING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 136 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT ACTIVITY AS
OF 1 AM IS ON A DOWNWARD TREND, BUT ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST
TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING WITHIN THE PW MAXIMUM. THE SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR FLOODING, ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE ISOLATED IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS MORNING,
AREAS OF RADIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF NEARLY CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, AND THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY PRODUCT, BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LESS PREVALENT CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 136 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025/
/TUESDAY ONWARD/
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HEADING INTO TUESDAY, AND THIS WILL SEND A WEAK
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE MOST
OF THE DYNAMIC LIFT WILL REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA, AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY ITSELF AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE PRECEDING ITS ARRIVAL. POPS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 10-20%,
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-35 DURING THE DAYTIME
TUESDAY. LITTLE THERMAL CONTRAST WILL EXIST WITH THIS BOUNDARY,
AND HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S DESPITE ITS PRESENCE. HOWEVER, LOWER HUMIDITY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
PLEASANT MIDWEEK PERIOD DESPITE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE AS WE
BECOME POSITIONED BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORKWEEK, AS A SERIES OF POTENT VORT MAXES PIVOT THROUGH AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. PRECEDING THESE
BOUNDARIES COULD BE ONE OR TWO RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS ON EITHER
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DUE TO VEERING
WESTERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE CWA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES, BUT PERIODIC
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AIRPORTS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF D10 AS OF 1030Z, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEPER CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TSRA MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND/AFTER 15Z
WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
EASTERLY WINDS LATER TODAY BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A NORTH WIND SHIFT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
THIS FEATURE'S TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND IT MAY END UP TAKING
LONGER TO ARRIVE.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 88 72 89 69 90 / 40 5 20 0 0
WACO 88 70 93 69 92 / 30 5 5 0 0
PARIS 85 68 85 65 88 / 30 10 20 5 0
DENTON 88 69 88 65 89 / 30 5 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 85 69 88 65 89 / 50 5 20 0 0
DALLAS 87 73 90 69 91 / 40 5 20 0 0
TERRELL 87 69 89 66 89 / 40 5 20 0 0
CORSICANA 87 71 91 69 92 / 40 5 10 0 0
TEMPLE 88 71 93 68 94 / 30 5 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 89 69 90 65 90 / 20 5 20 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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