443
FXUS64 KFWD 011824
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
124 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RESUMING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS,
EVIDENT BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND THE OVERALL
MUGGY FEELING OUTDOORS. IN THE MID-LEVELS, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS
PASSING OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME, LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH TRANSIENT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. WEAK FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS, MAKING FOR AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OR ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING. WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZATION IN SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE
OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MAKES IT WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS OUR REGION. TONIGHT, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE,
LIGHT WINDS, AND RADIATIONAL COOLING, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20. AT THIS TIME, FOG IS LIKELY
TO BE FAIRLY PATCHY WITH NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTH
TEXAS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND 90
DEGREES. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE EVENING,
WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO OUR REGION. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE EAST NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
REMAINING ON THE LOWER END. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR WHICH SHOULD DROP DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNINGS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, KEEPING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS ATOP OUR REGION, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND TO THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD 90S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AN INCOMING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY THIS
WEEKEND AND INCOMING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS A TROPICAL WAVE SKIRTS
THE WESTERN MEXICAN COASTLINE. MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE WEEKEND
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS D10 AT THIS TIME,
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES WAS TOO LOW TO PREVAIL, THEREFORE, VCTS
WAS MAINTAINED THROUGH 21Z. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, STORM
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH, LEAVING BEHIND EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVENING. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY,
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
REDUCTIONS IN THE VISIBILITY FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE IF CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION OF FOG INCREASES.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND NORTHERLY WINDS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND
AT AROUND 1500.
HERNANDEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 71 88 69 91 / 30 5 5 0 0
WACO 86 69 89 69 93 / 40 5 5 0 0
PARIS 84 67 85 65 89 / 30 20 10 5 0
DENTON 86 68 88 65 90 / 30 5 5 0 0
MCKINNEY 85 68 86 66 90 / 30 5 5 0 0
DALLAS 87 72 89 70 92 / 30 5 5 0 0
TERRELL 86 69 87 68 90 / 30 10 5 5 0
CORSICANA 87 71 90 70 92 / 30 10 5 0 0
TEMPLE 87 69 91 69 94 / 30 5 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 88 67 89 66 92 / 20 0 5 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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