149
FXUS64 KFWD 012350
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 124 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025/
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS,
EVIDENT BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND THE OVERALL
MUGGY FEELING OUTDOORS. IN THE MID-LEVELS, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS
PASSING OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME, LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH TRANSIENT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. WEAK FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS, MAKING FOR AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OR ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING. WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZATION IN SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE
OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MAKES IT WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS OUR REGION. TONIGHT, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE,
LIGHT WINDS, AND RADIATIONAL COOLING, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20. AT THIS TIME, FOG IS LIKELY
TO BE FAIRLY PATCHY WITH NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTH
TEXAS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND 90
DEGREES. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE EVENING,
WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO OUR REGION. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE EAST NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
REMAINING ON THE LOWER END. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR WHICH SHOULD DROP DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNINGS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 124 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, KEEPING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS ATOP OUR REGION, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND TO THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD 90S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AN INCOMING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY THIS
WEEKEND AND INCOMING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS A TROPICAL WAVE SKIRTS
THE WESTERN MEXICAN COASTLINE. MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE WEEKEND
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
EARLIER SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF METROPLEX AIRPORTS, AND DRY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT, A WEAK FROPA WILL BRING A SWITCH TO
LIGHT NORTH WINDS AROUND 09Z, AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT
AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR VISIBILITY AT AFW/FTW/GKY.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z AT ALL D10 AIRPORTS WITH
NORTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, ALONG WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
VCSH/VCTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR ACT, CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AROUND HILLSBORO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND MAY BRING VCSH/VCTS TO THE
AIRPORT THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TOMORROW ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ON TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND SUNRISE.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 71 88 69 91 69 / 5 5 0 0 0
WACO 69 89 69 93 67 / 20 5 0 0 0
PARIS 67 85 65 89 65 / 20 10 5 0 5
DENTON 68 88 65 90 66 / 5 5 0 0 5
MCKINNEY 68 86 66 90 67 / 5 5 0 0 0
DALLAS 72 89 70 92 70 / 5 5 0 0 0
TERRELL 69 87 68 90 66 / 20 5 5 0 0
CORSICANA 71 90 70 92 68 / 20 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE 69 91 69 94 66 / 20 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 67 89 66 92 66 / 0 5 0 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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