464
FXUS64 KFWD 021028
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
528 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35 WITH RAIN CHANCES OF 10-20%.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 129 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
RAIN CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO DRAW TO A CLOSE FOLLOWING AN
ANOMALOUSLY RAINY END TO AUGUST AND START OF SEPTEMBER, BUT ONE
LAST AFTERNOON OF RAIN CHANCES EXISTS TODAY BEFORE A BREAK DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NEAR/EAST OF I-35 WITHIN THE HIGHER PW AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 10% AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY, BUT THIS POTENTIAL DOES
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME DENSE ON A VERY LOCALIZED
SCALE. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY THOUGH SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS
IN CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT SHALLOW FOG COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE PRESENCE OF NEARLY CALM WINDS AND MINIMAL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATER THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL
EVENTUALLY USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL
BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 MOST OF TODAY BEFORE ANY NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
FOLLOWING A FEW DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS, AND DESPITE THE ONSET
OF NORTH WINDS, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 129 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RESUME. DEEP TROUGHING WILL EXIST OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT ENERGY
FROM INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES PIVOTING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TEND TO
INHIBIT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO STALL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
HOTTER DAYS WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS AS
WINDS VEER WESTERLY AHEAD OF THESE STALLING FRONTS.
TRENDS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A VAGUE
SPLIT FLOW REGIME REPLACES THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE,
ALLOWING A FRONTAL ZONE TO DIP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AS
WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOLER POST-
FRONTAL AIR AND AN INCREASE IN DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FETCH OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EAST PACIFIC BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS COULD INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS MARKEDLY. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS POTENTIAL, BUT IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST FEATURE TO
MONITOR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE 80S FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
LIGHT NORTH WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS AS OF 1030Z AND SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. VERY SPORADIC MIST/FOG HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT A FEW
AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT, AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, PARTICULARLY AT WACO
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF VCSH
WILL BE INDICATED FOR THIS LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE D10 TAF
SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 88 70 90 70 94 / 20 5 0 0 0
WACO 89 69 91 66 95 / 10 0 0 0 0
PARIS 85 66 86 66 90 / 20 5 0 5 0
DENTON 88 66 90 66 93 / 20 5 0 5 0
MCKINNEY 88 66 89 66 92 / 20 5 0 0 0
DALLAS 89 71 91 70 95 / 20 5 0 0 0
TERRELL 88 67 89 66 92 / 20 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA 90 70 91 67 95 / 20 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE 90 68 92 65 96 / 5 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 90 66 91 65 95 / 10 0 0 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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