880
FXUS64 KFWD 030626
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
126 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 90S TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR AND BEHIND A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT CONTINUES TO DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS RATHER UNLIKELY, AND WE'LL INDICATE
POPS OF JUST 10-20% THROUGH SUNRISE NEAR AND EAST OF I-45 WITH
THIS POTENTIAL ENDING BY MID-MORNING. A WARM AND RAIN-FREE
AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. THE STEADY ARRIVAL OF LOWER DEWPOINTS WITHIN NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT AFTERNOON OTHERWISE,
WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME THIS EVENING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
COUPLE OF WARMER DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY TO END THE
WEEK.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY ONWARD/
A PAIR OF HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAYS WILL END THE WORKWEEK, AS DEEP
UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SEND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER
WESTERLY. RESULTANT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
SENDING HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH EVEN SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. FORTUNATELY, DESPITE
THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
SLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S WILL PREVENT HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SECONDARY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SIMILAR TIMING, WITH A VEERING TO WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, A STEADILY THICKENING CIRRUS
CANOPY ARRIVING WITH A FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT
AFTERNOON HEATING TO AN EXTENT, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL
BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CULMINATE IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND. WHILE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
EXIST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES IN NORTH TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS ONE OR
MORE DISTURBANCES WITHIN A BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES RESULTS
IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL SURFACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST ON SATURDAY
BEFORE BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THE PRESENCE
OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH COOLER POST-
FRONTAL AIR WILL SHAVE AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EVEN
REACH 80 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR/BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40%.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT 5-8 KTS
WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME SCANT
CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT AND FEW/SCT CIRRUS.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 92 69 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 70 92 66 97 73 / 5 0 0 0 0
PARIS 67 88 66 93 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENTON 65 91 66 97 73 / 5 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 67 90 67 96 73 / 5 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 71 91 70 98 76 / 5 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 69 89 67 94 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 71 91 68 96 74 / 20 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 70 93 65 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 64 91 66 100 73 / 0 0 5 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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