233
FXUS64 KFWD 121016
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
516 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT BUT TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED SOME OF THE RURAL, LOWER
ELEVATION SPOTS TO OVER-ACHIEVE ON THE RADIATIVE COOLING ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING. THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS YESTERDAY, SEVERAL
SPOTS DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S OVER THE PAST HOUR. URBAN AREAS ON
THE OTHER HAND REMAIN WARM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S.
SOME MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WERE NEEDED BASED ON
METAR TRENDS, OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
30
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH SATURDAY/
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PLANTED OVER TEXAS
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
70S WILL BE 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. A
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT, BUT A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT ORIGINATING FROM NUMEROUS
WILDFIRES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAKE FOR PICTURESQUE
SUNSETS AND SUNRISES.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1238 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025/
/NEXT WEEK/
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE RESULTING CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SHUT
DOWN ANY CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS,
THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY APPROACH THE BIG COUNTRY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO KNOCK A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL RE-
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY, KEEPING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY EVENTUALLY
BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND, OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KT.
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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 95 75 94 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 94 72 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 93 71 92 72 91 / 0 0 5 0 0
DENTON 96 71 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 94 72 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 96 75 94 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 94 72 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 95 72 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 94 69 94 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 96 69 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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