658
FXUS64 KFWD 121729
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1229 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT BUT TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS WEEKEND/
ANOMALOUSLY WARM MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH,
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY RETURN OF MOISTURE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FLIRT
WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THE EDGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL IMPINGE ON AND SOMEWHAT FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY
SUNDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST TX/OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY RAINFALL REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS OUR
AREA REMAINS VERY LOW. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER
MAY TEMPER TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT OVERALL WILL NOT
PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SUBTLE HAZE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SUNRISE AND SUNSET COLORATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT SHOULD YIELD NO SURFACE IMPACTS.
12
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/NEXT WEEK/
THE RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF MONDAY, MAINTAINING SEASONABLY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL TURN OUR MID-LEVEL
FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY, POTENTIALLY OPENING THE DOOR TO LOW RAIN
CHANCES AS WEAK DISTURBANCES DROP SOUTH. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR NOW, SO THE FORECAST REMAINS HOT AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
12
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
PREVAILING SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE. THE COVERAGE OF CIRRUS MAY BEGIN INCREASING LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
12
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 95 75 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 93 71 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 93 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 96 71 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 95 72 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 96 75 95 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 93 72 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 95 73 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 94 69 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 96 69 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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