676
FXUS64 KFWD 130533
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE MADE ITS WAY
INTO ANDERSON COUNTY A SHORT WHILE AGO, BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
UPON ENCOUNTERING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE AGAIN SATURDAY, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS BEING POSSIBLE NEAR OUR CWA BORDERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PROVIDE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER WEST OF THE REGION AS IT MARCHES EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REACH
THE BIG COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAKENS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
PROBABILITIES OF THEM SURVIVING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ARE SLIM, BUT WILL KEEP SOME 10-20% POPS ALONG OUR
WESTERN BORDER ON SUNDAY FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE A STORM IS ABLE TO
OVER-ACHIEVE.
30
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMPROMISED ALONG ITS
NORTHWEST FLANK ON MONDAY BY THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL
HENCE KEEP SILENT 10% POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE,
CONTINUED SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT WILL TRANSPIRE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND THE RIDGE RETREATS
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
A QUICK ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA, FARTHEST FROM THE RIDGE AND WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL EXIST. WILL KEEP POPS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW BEING THAT IT IS
5+ DAYS AWAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING
THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH (AND UNDERESTIMATING THE RIDGE).
WHATEVER THE CASE, THE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE
RIDGE WILL RE-INTENSIFY OVERHEAD, AND HOT/DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
SUNDAY, THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL 15-20 KT GUST MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR AND OVERALL QUIET AVIATION WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAIN IN CONTROL.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 93 74 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 71 92 72 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 72 91 70 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 71 94 71 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 71 93 71 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 75 94 75 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 71 91 71 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 72 93 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 69 92 69 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 69 94 69 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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