486
FXUS64 KFWD 151023
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
523 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1252 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025/
/THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT, KEEPING ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NORTH OF NORTH
TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS ALOFT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE AT OR BELOW 20%; AND MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-35
OR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT, SHUTTING DOWN ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST AREAS (BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY) WILL
REMAIN DRY AND TOASTY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1252 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025/
/TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
OUR RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE AN ODDLY SHAPED AND ELONGATED ONE,
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND ESSENTIALLY SERVING AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ASYMMETRIC UPPER
LOW (WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY ERODING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BLOCKING RIDGE) AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL CONTAIN A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES, EACH OF
WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY SWING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE SECOND OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL POPS HAVE INCREASED IN EACH CASE DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES. THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE RED
RIVER WHERE THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL EXIST, WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN CHANCES THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE NORM WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 90S.
THE LOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN UPPER TROUGH AS IT
PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, WHILE
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SCENARIO
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS STARTING LATE FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
THIS FLOW WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH
AROUND 10KT BY 14Z AND REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PROBS
REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, CONVECTION
NEARING THE UKW ARRIVAL GATE SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF ALL
TAF LOCATIONS.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 94 73 94 73 93 / 10 0 5 0 10
WACO 92 70 91 71 92 / 10 0 0 0 5
PARIS 92 69 92 68 91 / 10 5 10 5 20
DENTON 94 69 94 69 93 / 10 0 5 0 10
MCKINNEY 94 70 93 70 93 / 10 0 5 0 10
DALLAS 95 74 94 74 94 / 10 0 5 0 10
TERRELL 92 69 92 70 92 / 10 0 5 5 10
CORSICANA 93 71 93 72 93 / 10 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE 91 68 92 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 5
MINERAL WELLS 94 68 94 67 93 / 10 0 5 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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