211
FXUS64 KFWD 151742
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- ISOLATED (10-15% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK CONTINUES TO DWINDLE, AS LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN BENEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED (10-15% CHANCE)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS WELL AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR EAST
TIED TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP OUR FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SHUNTED OVER MEXICO, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SWING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH EACH PASS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BOTH BE ON THE RISE.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THESE SHORTWAVES MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL SEE ANY OF THESE FRONTS AT THIS TIME,
AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR NORTH. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
"POPCORN" SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10-15%. GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF ANY OF THE
TERMINALS, WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE'LL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BELOW 10
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOUTHWEST OR POTENTIALLY
WEST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 13-17Z. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AOB 5 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH WINDS RESUMING
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION PRIOR TO 18Z.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 94 73 93 73 93 / 20 10 10 10 5
WACO 91 70 92 70 92 / 20 10 10 10 5
PARIS 93 68 93 69 92 / 10 0 10 10 10
DENTON 94 70 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 94 70 93 69 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
DALLAS 94 74 95 74 94 / 20 10 10 10 5
TERRELL 92 70 92 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 5
CORSICANA 93 71 93 71 93 / 20 10 10 10 5
TEMPLE 91 68 92 68 92 / 10 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS 94 68 93 67 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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