502
FXUS64 KFWD 160558
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1258 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- ISOLATED (AROUND 10% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
A TRANQUIL START TO TODAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING, EVENTUALLY SETTLING AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE REGION WILL REMAIN PLANTED UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SW-NE ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. DUE
TO A LACK OF FOCUSED SYNOPTIC LIFT, ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WITH VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THOUGH ANY OF THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. CAM
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BIT OF BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT EXACT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS REALLY NO BIG
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW (I.E., STILL
LITTLE MID-LEVEL LIFT). DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT THE SAME 10%
CHANCE POP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PRATER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
BY MID-LATE WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
BREAKING DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL PLACE NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH AS WE
GO INTO THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR
THURSDAY ONWARD. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE LOWER END THE
REST OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, BOTH INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR
LOOK TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALL THIS BEING SAID, WE COULD
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VARY IN DIRECTION BETWEEN 140-220
DEGREES THROUGH THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY SETTLING OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5-7 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LOW (~10%) CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
COVERAGE REMAINING SPOTTY AND ISOLATED. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF VCTS/VCSH FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AT THE AIRPORTS DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF ANY IMPACT. IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE AIRPORT, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE ERRATIC, GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
PRATER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 94 73 93 72 / 0 10 0 10 5
WACO 71 92 71 92 71 / 0 10 0 10 0
PARIS 69 92 69 90 68 / 0 10 5 10 10
DENTON 69 94 69 93 69 / 0 10 0 10 5
MCKINNEY 71 93 71 92 69 / 0 10 0 10 5
DALLAS 74 95 74 94 73 / 0 10 0 10 5
TERRELL 70 93 70 91 69 / 0 10 0 10 5
CORSICANA 71 93 71 93 71 / 0 10 0 10 0
TEMPLE 68 92 69 92 69 / 0 10 0 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 67 95 68 93 68 / 5 10 0 10 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page