039
FXUS64 KFWD 041035
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) BY
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 117 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S. WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, THE DIURNAL
CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE UNABLE TO DEEPEN AND MATURE INTO RAIN
SHOWERS DESPITE DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. A DRY LOW-
LEVEL FETCH AND STRONG MIXING OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 60S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 117 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025/
/SUNDAY ONWARD/
THE WARM AND DRY WEEKEND CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE GULF LOW ALLOWS DRY ESE WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LOW-
LEVELS. AS THIS FEATURE FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST HEADING
INTO THE WORKWEEK, A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESUME, WHICH WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD ALSO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO ENCROACH ON OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. BY
TUESDAY, A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF DRAGGING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH TEXAS, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH TO ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL ZONE.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS NEAR 6 KFT.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 68 90 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
WACO 90 65 90 69 88 / 0 0 0 5 20
PARIS 87 63 88 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENTON 89 63 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 89 65 89 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 90 68 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 88 64 89 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 89 66 90 69 89 / 0 0 0 5 20
TEMPLE 90 64 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 5 20
MINERAL WELLS 89 63 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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