541
FXUS64 KFWD 041723
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) BY
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/REST OF THIS WEEKEND/
UPPER RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN A
PLUME OF GREATER QUALITY MOISTURE SETTLING OVER PARTS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY AND WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH SUNDAY.
LANGFELD
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY AND BEYOND/
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND HUMIDITY STARTING MONDAY WITH EVEN SOME SEABREEZE SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY NUDGING INTO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS AND BRAZOS VALLEY
COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH
TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC-SCALE
SUPPORT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS, HOWEVER
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH
CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. NOTABLE, WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME WITH THE NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE HIGHLIGHTING
GENERALLY A TRACE TO 0.35" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, A
BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY NUDGE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
LANGFELD
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TERMINALS.
LANGFELD
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 68 90 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
WACO 90 65 90 69 88 / 0 0 0 5 20
PARIS 87 63 88 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENTON 89 63 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 89 65 89 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 90 68 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 88 64 89 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 89 66 90 69 89 / 0 0 0 5 20
TEMPLE 90 64 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 5 20
MINERAL WELLS 89 63 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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