706
FXUS64 KFWD 042327
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) BY
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025/
/REST OF THIS WEEKEND/
UPPER RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN A
PLUME OF GREATER QUALITY MOISTURE SETTLING OVER PARTS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY AND WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH SUNDAY.
LANGFELD
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025/
/MONDAY AND BEYOND/
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND HUMIDITY STARTING MONDAY WITH EVEN SOME SEABREEZE SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY NUDGING INTO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS AND BRAZOS VALLEY
COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH
TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC-SCALE
SUPPORT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS, HOWEVER
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH
CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. NOTABLE, WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME WITH THE NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE HIGHLIGHTING
GENERALLY A TRACE TO 0.35" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, A
BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY NUDGE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
LANGFELD
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKC
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 6-7K FT POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF D10.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 89 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 10 20
WACO 65 89 67 89 70 / 0 0 5 20 20
PARIS 63 87 66 85 67 / 0 0 5 20 20
DENTON 62 88 64 87 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
MCKINNEY 64 89 66 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 20
DALLAS 68 90 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
TERRELL 63 89 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 20 20
CORSICANA 66 90 68 89 70 / 0 0 5 20 20
TEMPLE 63 89 65 88 67 / 0 0 5 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 62 90 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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