717
FXUS64 KFWD 050606
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
106 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) BY
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER RIDGING AND A DRY ESE LOW-LEVEL FETCH WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DESPITE THE ABNORMAL WARMTH, LOW HUMIDITY CHARACTERIZED BY 50F
DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT AFTERNOON WHILE A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAILS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
60S, WITH URBAN AREAS HOLDING NEAR 70.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY ONWARD/
A SMALL PATTERN SHIFT WILL UNFOLD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK, BUT ITS IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINIMAL OVERALL. AS A WEAK GULF LOW CIRCULATION DRIFTS INLAND ON
MONDAY, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY TAKE ON A MORE FAVORABLE
SOUTHERLY FETCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT, WHICH WILL INCREASE
HUMIDITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THERMODYNAMIC
CONTRAST ACROSS THIS FEATURE WILL BE RATHER UNNOTICEABLE. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ITS VICINITY SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF RESULTING
IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE WILL MEAN THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WILL STAY RAIN-FREE. A RETURN TO STOUT UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS NOT MUCH SIGN OF A TRUE FALL COLD FRONT OR
NOTEWORTHY COOLDOWN ON THE HORIZON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE MONTH.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND OF
5-10 KTS. A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS AROUND 6 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED,
WITH CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 89 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
WACO 64 89 67 90 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
PARIS 63 87 66 85 67 / 0 0 5 10 10
DENTON 62 88 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 64 88 66 88 67 / 0 0 0 5 10
DALLAS 68 90 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 5 10
TERRELL 63 88 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA 66 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
TEMPLE 64 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 62 90 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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