487
FXUS64 KFWD 051030
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) BY
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 106 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER RIDGING AND A DRY ESE LOW-LEVEL FETCH WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DESPITE THE ABNORMAL WARMTH, LOW HUMIDITY CHARACTERIZED BY 50F
DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT AFTERNOON WHILE A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAILS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
60S, WITH URBAN AREAS HOLDING NEAR 70.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 106 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025/
/MONDAY ONWARD/
A SMALL PATTERN SHIFT WILL UNFOLD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK, BUT ITS IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINIMAL OVERALL. AS A WEAK GULF LOW CIRCULATION DRIFTS INLAND ON
MONDAY, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY TAKE ON A MORE FAVORABLE
SOUTHERLY FETCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT, WHICH WILL INCREASE
HUMIDITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THERMODYNAMIC
CONTRAST ACROSS THIS FEATURE WILL BE RATHER UNNOTICEABLE. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ITS VICINITY SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF RESULTING
IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE WILL MEAN THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WILL STAY RAIN-FREE. A RETURN TO STOUT UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS NOT MUCH SIGN OF A TRUE FALL COLD FRONT OR
NOTEWORTHY COOLDOWN ON THE HORIZON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE MONTH.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10 KTS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS
AROUND 6 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 89 70 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
WACO 67 90 70 89 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
PARIS 66 85 67 86 66 / 0 0 5 10 10
DENTON 63 89 65 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 66 88 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 5 10
DALLAS 70 90 71 90 70 / 0 0 0 5 10
TERRELL 65 88 67 88 67 / 0 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA 68 90 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
TEMPLE 66 90 67 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 63 91 65 89 64 / 0 0 0 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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