613
FXUS64 KFWD 051827
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
127 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT'S
ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
- DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- APART FROM A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NON-
EXISTENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, AND FIRE CONCERNS MAY GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDINESS
BOTH DAYS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING EACH EVENING. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF, EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW, WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT OFF TO THE
EAST OF US SHOULD AID IN BACKING OUR SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO AN
EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXTREMELY
SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION INDUCED BY THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIM HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, STATUS QUO FOR OUR AREA, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
BRADSHAW
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE ONLY EXCITING ASPECT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE SUSPENSE
INVOLVED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK BOUNDARY ADVERTISED TO DROP
INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERITABLE RAINBOWS AND UNICORNS (IN
A RELATIVE SENSE), WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY (AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY TOO).
UNFORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE KEY ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS - PARTICULARLY
THE NBM AND ECMWF - DISCOUNT THE VIGOR OF THIS UPCOMING BOUNDARY,
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND MOST
IMPORTANTLY, THE COOLER SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT. ENSEMBLE-BASED PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85
DEGREES REMAIN QUITE HIGH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH EVEN LOWER 90S A GOOD POSSIBILITY SOUTH
OF I-20. THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE NBM IN OUR EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, AND ONE THAT WE HAVE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRING.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EPISODE EVOLVE, WITH A STOUT HIGH PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM THURSDAY RIGHT ON
THROUGH SUNDAY (AND BEYOND, FRANKLY). RAINFALL WILL BE NON-
EXISTENT, OWING TO AN ABSENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
MECHANISMS.
THE PERSISTENCE OF DAYTIME HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL, WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A STEADILY INCREASING WILDFIRE RISK AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF OCTOBER. THIS WILL REPRESENT AN EXPANSION OF THE SMALL
FIRES THAT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SOME FREQUENCY ACROSS OUR
AREA. AS OF NOW, THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST 2/3RDS OF OCTOBER) FOR A MAJOR WEATHER CHANGE WHICH WOULD
SWING OUR TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL CHANCES BACK TO THOSE NORMALLY
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FALL.
BRADSHAW
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDINESS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, LEAVING CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL CYCLE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. A
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW AT 5-9 KNOTS, DRIVEN BY A
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS, WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. AFTER 18Z MONDAY, WINDS AT THE D10 SITES WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT AROUND 6-8 KNOTS, WITH THIS
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
BRADSHAW
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 89 70 88 70 89 / 0 5 10 5 10
WACO 89 65 89 69 90 / 0 5 5 5 20
PARIS 87 67 85 67 86 / 0 5 10 10 20
DENTON 88 64 88 64 87 / 0 5 10 5 10
MCKINNEY 89 66 87 66 87 / 0 5 10 5 10
DALLAS 90 70 90 71 89 / 0 0 10 5 10
TERRELL 89 65 87 66 88 / 0 5 5 5 20
CORSICANA 90 68 89 69 90 / 0 0 5 5 20
TEMPLE 90 65 90 67 89 / 0 0 5 5 20
MINERAL WELLS 90 63 91 64 89 / 0 0 5 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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