371
FXUS64 KFWD 060045
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
- DESPITE THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
- GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AND FIRE DANGER
COULD GRADUALLY WORSEN.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 127 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDINESS
BOTH DAYS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING EACH EVENING. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF, EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW, WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT OFF TO THE
EAST OF US SHOULD AID IN BACKING OUR SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO AN
EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXTREMELY
SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION INDUCED BY THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIM HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, STATUS QUO FOR OUR AREA, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
BRADSHAW
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 127 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025/
/TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE ONLY EXCITING ASPECT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE SUSPENSE
INVOLVED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK BOUNDARY ADVERTISED TO DROP
INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERITABLE RAINBOWS AND UNICORNS (IN
A RELATIVE SENSE), WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY (AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY TOO).
UNFORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE KEY ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS - PARTICULARLY
THE NBM AND ECMWF - DISCOUNT THE VIGOR OF THIS UPCOMING BOUNDARY,
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND MOST
IMPORTANTLY, THE COOLER SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT. ENSEMBLE-BASED PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85
DEGREES REMAIN QUITE HIGH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH EVEN LOWER 90S A GOOD POSSIBILITY SOUTH
OF I-20. THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE NBM IN OUR EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, AND ONE THAT WE HAVE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRING.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EPISODE EVOLVE, WITH A STOUT HIGH PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM THURSDAY RIGHT ON
THROUGH SUNDAY (AND BEYOND, FRANKLY). RAINFALL WILL BE NON-
EXISTENT, OWING TO AN ABSENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
MECHANISMS.
THE PERSISTENCE OF DAYTIME HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL, WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A STEADILY INCREASING WILDFIRE RISK AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF OCTOBER. THIS WILL REPRESENT AN EXPANSION OF THE SMALL
FIRES THAT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SOME FREQUENCY ACROSS OUR
AREA. AS OF NOW, THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST 2/3RDS OF OCTOBER) FOR A MAJOR WEATHER CHANGE WHICH WOULD
SWING OUR TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL CHANCES BACK TO THOSE NORMALLY
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN THE FALL.
BRADSHAW
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH JUST A FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 7K FT AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
10 KNOTS.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 88 70 89 69 / 5 10 5 10 10
WACO 65 89 69 90 69 / 5 5 5 20 10
PARIS 67 85 67 86 66 / 5 10 10 20 5
DENTON 64 88 64 87 64 / 5 10 5 10 10
MCKINNEY 66 87 66 87 66 / 5 10 5 10 5
DALLAS 70 90 71 89 69 / 0 10 5 10 5
TERRELL 65 87 66 88 67 / 5 5 5 20 10
CORSICANA 68 89 69 90 69 / 0 5 5 20 10
TEMPLE 65 90 67 89 67 / 0 5 5 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 63 91 64 89 64 / 0 5 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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