788
FXUS64 KFWD 061036
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ASIDE FROM SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 10 TO 20% ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1228 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WE BEGIN THE
WORKWEEK, WITH SOME SLIM RAIN CHANCES OF LESS THAN 10% EAST OF
I-35 TODAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NORTHWARD MOVING GULF LOW WHICH WILL BE
ABSORBED BY MID-LATITUDE FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BECAUSE OF
SUCH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL, RAIN-FREE WEATHER
WILL BE INDICATED IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. A WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNALLY DRIVEN
UPDRAFTS, AND HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
A SHRUNKEN DIURNAL CURVE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1228 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025/
/TUESDAY ONWARD/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT OTHER THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION, ITS IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. THE THERMODYNAMIC CONTRAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAG BEHIND BY A FEW HUNDRED
MILES AND WILL STALL BEFORE ANY NOTEWORTHY COOLER AIR CAN PROGRESS
AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH TEXAS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY, AND THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE CONVERGENT AXIS SHOULD LIE DURING PEAK
HEATING. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE SLIM AS MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
STILL PREVAILS OVERHEAD, AND POPS OF JUST 10-20% WILL BE
ADVERTISED. WARM AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS LITTLE/NO
INDICATION REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FALL COLD
FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, A
FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS AROUND 6-7 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY
MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT,
WITH ITS ARRIVAL LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 12-15Z. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE EXTENDED DFW TAF. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL STRATUS NEAR 3 KFT.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 90 67 86 66 / 0 0 0 10 5
WACO 68 91 68 89 66 / 0 0 5 10 5
PARIS 67 89 66 85 61 / 0 10 10 20 5
DENTON 64 89 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 10 5
MCKINNEY 66 89 64 86 63 / 0 5 5 10 5
DALLAS 71 91 68 89 67 / 0 0 5 10 5
TERRELL 66 89 65 87 63 / 0 5 5 10 5
CORSICANA 68 91 68 88 66 / 0 0 5 10 5
TEMPLE 67 91 66 88 66 / 0 0 5 20 5
MINERAL WELLS 64 90 63 88 62 / 0 0 0 10 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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