881
FXUS64 KFWD 070607
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
107 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK
COLD FRONT FOR PARTS OF EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING THIS
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER HOWEVER, WITH MINIMAL THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS IT. THE
CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE CAPABLE IN PRODUCING AT LEAST A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK
HEATING, AND THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED BY MID-AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 10% OR LESS. HIGHS WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EVEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH
RAIN CHANCES STAYING BELOW 10% INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS RESUME IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FETCH
OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL RESULT IN LOWER HUMIDITY HEADING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN WILDFIRE
STARTS GIVEN THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ONE OR MORE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS MAY
ARRIVE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THIS COULD INTERACT WITH A NEARBY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OFFER
LOW RAIN CHANCES TO PART OF NORTH TEXAS, BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT MORE THAN 10% POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND FINALLY NORTHERLY LATER THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES. SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS AND INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE PRESENT, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION NEAR
THE WACO TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 90 67 87 65 / 0 5 5 0 0
WACO 68 91 68 90 67 / 0 10 5 5 0
PARIS 66 90 65 84 60 / 5 10 5 0 0
DENTON 63 89 62 86 60 / 0 5 5 5 0
MCKINNEY 66 90 64 86 61 / 0 5 5 5 0
DALLAS 70 92 68 89 66 / 0 5 5 0 0
TERRELL 66 91 65 88 61 / 0 5 10 5 0
CORSICANA 69 92 69 91 65 / 0 10 5 5 0
TEMPLE 67 91 66 90 65 / 5 10 5 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 63 91 63 87 62 / 0 5 5 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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