414
FXUS64 KFWD 071030
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK
COLD FRONT FOR PARTS OF EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 107 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING THIS
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER HOWEVER, WITH MINIMAL THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS IT. THE
CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE CAPABLE IN PRODUCING AT LEAST A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK
HEATING, AND THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED BY MID-AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 10% OR LESS. HIGHS WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EVEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 107 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH
RAIN CHANCES STAYING BELOW 10% INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS RESUME IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FETCH
OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL RESULT IN LOWER HUMIDITY HEADING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN WILDFIRE
STARTS GIVEN THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ONE OR MORE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS MAY
ARRIVE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THIS COULD INTERACT WITH A NEARBY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OFFER
LOW RAIN CHANCES TO PART OF NORTH TEXAS, BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT MORE THAN 10% POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OF
1030Z, AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE D10 AIRPORTS AROUND 15-16Z.
UNTIL THEN, A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONT'S NORTH WIND SHIFT
LATER THIS MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS
AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS
WELL, BUT WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE OF 10% OR LESS EXPECTED, THIS
WILL NOT BE FORMALLY ADDRESSED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 67 87 65 87 / 5 5 0 0 0
WACO 91 68 90 67 88 / 10 5 5 0 0
PARIS 90 65 84 60 83 / 10 5 0 0 0
DENTON 89 62 86 60 86 / 5 5 5 0 0
MCKINNEY 90 64 86 61 86 / 5 5 5 0 0
DALLAS 92 68 89 66 88 / 5 5 0 0 0
TERRELL 91 65 88 61 86 / 5 10 5 0 0
CORSICANA 92 69 91 65 88 / 10 5 5 0 0
TEMPLE 91 66 90 65 88 / 10 5 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 91 63 87 62 89 / 5 5 5 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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