068
FXUS64 KFWD 071809
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
109 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE THE WIND SHIFT HAS
GENERALLY SPREAD SOUTH OF I-20, THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY STILL ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE A NOTABLE
TEMP/DEWPOINT DROP IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF I-20 AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. A LACK OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AROUND 10% OR
LESS WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING MUCH RAINFALL. EVER SO SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR 60 IN OUR
NORTHWEST WITH MID 60S ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH UPPER
80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS BUT THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL REMAIN DRY AND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WE WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN GRASS FIRE STARTS WEST OF I-35. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TROUGHING WILL SPREAD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THIS FRONT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGES APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON ANYTIME IN THE NEXT WEEK TO 10
DAYS.
DUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTH WINDS GENERALLY PREVAILING AT ALL THE
AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME, ALBEIT LIGHT. THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST METROPLEX AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 67 87 67 85 / 5 5 5 0 0
WACO 91 68 90 67 87 / 10 5 5 0 0
PARIS 89 65 85 60 81 / 5 5 5 0 0
DENTON 89 62 85 62 84 / 0 5 5 0 0
MCKINNEY 90 64 86 63 84 / 0 5 5 0 0
DALLAS 91 68 89 67 86 / 5 5 5 0 0
TERRELL 90 66 87 62 84 / 5 5 5 0 0
CORSICANA 92 69 90 67 86 / 10 5 5 0 0
TEMPLE 91 66 89 65 87 / 10 5 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 90 63 88 63 88 / 5 5 5 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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