756
FXUS64 KFWD 092230
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT WILL BE PRESENT FOR AREAS NEAR
AND WEST OF I-35 ON SUNDAY.
- WARM AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 131 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING RETAINS DOMINION OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS' WEATHER
PATTERN. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH IS CURRENTLY SHUNTING A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH AND WESTWARD TOWARDS EAST TEXAS, MAINLY CHARACTERIZED
BY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL
QUIETLY SLIDE FURTHER INTO OUR AREA THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH
ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND NO REAL TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY,
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW BEFORE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE
WEEKEND. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A WASH, RINSE,
AND REPEAT OF TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE
MID 80S AND LOW 90S.
PRATER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 131 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025/
/THURSDAY FRIDAY ONWARD/
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS THINGS WARM AND DRY THIS WEEKEND,
A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL
TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS.
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
INCREASINGLY DRIED FUELS, AND CONTINUED ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, THESE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASED CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST
OF I-35. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WIND
SPEEDS REACH 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH.
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL EJECT FROM THE
MAIN TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK,
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL BEFORE IT MAKES IT TO OUR AREA, WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE RIDGING WILL REMAIN
PLANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHEAST TEXAS
WILL KEEP LIGHT EAST WINDS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A
RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER TEXAS, MAINTAINING TRANQUIL
AVIATION WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE FROM THE
WESTERN WILDFIRES MAY AFFECT SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AREA-WIDE.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 87 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 62 88 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 57 83 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 58 86 58 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 58 85 59 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 64 88 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 86 58 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 62 88 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 61 88 58 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 60 90 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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