148
FXUS64 KFWD 180945
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS (40-80%)
TODAY. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARM
UP ON MONDAY, THEN MILD TEMPERATURES THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 137 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
QUIET, WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID NIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS AND RETURNING GULF
MOISTURE, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST. LITTLE
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE COAST
TOWARDS SUNRISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST BY SUNRISE, THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY BEFORE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY 19/00Z. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS
EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NOW ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO ITS
FAST MOVEMENT, WITH MOST AREAS STILL ANTICIPATED TO SEE LESS THAN
ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE RISK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE
STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UP TO 60 KNOTS, BUT POOR LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS
THAN 7C/KM AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR LESS THAN 100 M2/S2. THESE
PARAMETERS COMBINED ARE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT, BUT COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH
HIGH WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. THE RELATIVELY FAST
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS TODAY AT AROUND 40 MPH COULD ALSO
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM WIND POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS VERY LOW IN OUR CWA DUE TO THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR, WITH
BETTER CHANCES OFF TO OUR EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING CAMS
SUGGEST HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IN OUR CWA IS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST QUADRANT (EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20)
WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL RESIDE.
ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL LAG
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE STORMS, BUT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30-40
MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. MUCH COOLER AIR IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
FRONT BRINGING OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER SO FAR THIS
SEASON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING, AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 70S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 137 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025/
/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER THE BRIEF COOLDOWN ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, A RAPID
WEATHER CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY, AND
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FORECAST LOW RH AND RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO AREAS WEST OF
I-35 ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING US QUIET, MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S, AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. ANOTHER WARMUP BEGINS ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS 00Z MODELS SHOW A SMALL CUTOFF UPPER LOW SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING OUR NEXT, ALBEIT LOW, RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS KACT AND D10 THIS
MORNING, AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH D10 BETWEEN 16-21Z AND KACT FROM
19-23Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
RAPID CLEARING BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER STORMS DEPART FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 KTS
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 16Z, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH AROUND 03Z-05Z WITH FROPA.
NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 30 KTS LIKELY AFTER 06-08Z.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY, BUT ANY REPORTS OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 83 56 74 56 89 / 80 10 0 0 0
WACO 88 57 77 51 90 / 50 10 0 0 0
PARIS 82 52 72 49 83 / 90 20 0 0 0
DENTON 82 51 73 51 88 / 80 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 82 53 73 51 86 / 80 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 84 57 75 57 88 / 80 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 85 54 74 49 86 / 80 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA 87 58 75 53 89 / 70 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE 89 56 78 50 90 / 40 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 84 52 77 51 93 / 80 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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