249
FXUS64 KFWD 181846
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
146 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST OF I-35.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARM
UP ON MONDAY, THEN MILD TEMPERATURES THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS FINALLY SEEING SOME LONG-ANTICIPATED RAIN,
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SO FAR,
CENTRAL TEXAS HAS SEEN LESS COVERAGE SINCE THIS MORNING, BUT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO BETTER ORGANIZE THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES EAST OF I-35 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THE
SEVERE RISK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35 TO OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE
BETTER WIND PROFILES COULD INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
DRIVEN BAY DAYTIME HEATING. AS WE'VE BEEN MESSAGING FOR THIS
EVENT, THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 50-60 MPH
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL (UP TO QUARTER SIZE). THE TORNADO THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW (STILL NON-ZERO) ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS RISK IS HIGHER WHEN
YOU MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA. THE LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD FINALLY EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES FROM THE WEST.
A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH, WITH GUST UP TO 25 MPH. CONDITIONS
SHOULD EASE BY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE GOOD NEWS--WE WILL ENJOY SOME NICE FALL TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS STAYING IN THE 70S REGION WIDE. THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SAT/SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/NEXT WEEK/
AFTER THE TASTE OF FALL THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL BEGIN THE WEEK ON THE WARM
SIDE AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION. DAYTIME MIXING OF 30-40 KTS
850 MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ALSO MIX TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH HIGHS THAT COULD
REACH THE LOW 90S ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER MAINLY WEST I-35 ON MONDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WELL RECEIVED COOL DOWN. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S. NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
80S. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ONE
MORE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME
LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, FROPA
LATER THIS EVENING.
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
STORMS IS VISIBLE IN THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT
SHOULD BE CROSSING OUR WESTERN TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
THE LINE SHOULD BE EAST OF D10 IN THE NEXT 2-2.5 HOURS, BUT SOME
OF THE EASTERN ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES MAY BE IMPACTED THROUGH 00Z.
IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHTNING THREAT, GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN
30-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THE
GREATEST SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF I-35 TOWARDS
EAST/NORTHEAST TEXAS WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. FOR WACO, THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOWER, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY STILL IMPACT THIS SITE BETWEEN
20-23Z. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE WIND SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY 04-05Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. THE NORTH WINDS WILL RELAX DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE THEY SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY
REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 56 73 56 86 / 90 5 0 0 0
WACO 88 58 76 51 88 / 50 10 0 0 0
PARIS 80 52 71 48 82 / 90 10 0 0 0
DENTON 81 51 72 50 87 / 90 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 82 52 73 50 85 / 90 5 0 0 0
DALLAS 83 56 74 55 87 / 90 5 0 0 0
TERRELL 83 53 73 49 86 / 80 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA 88 58 76 54 88 / 70 30 0 0 0
TEMPLE 90 56 78 51 89 / 30 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 85 51 75 51 92 / 70 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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