980
FXUS64 KFWD 182358
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH BREEZY
NORTH WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. A QUICK WARMUP IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS LARGELY MOVED OUT OF NORTH TEXAS WITH A FEW
TRAILING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST AFTER DARK. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL OFF
TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPREADING SOUTH. MORNING LOWS
MAY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME OF OUR OUTLYING AREAS WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE NOTABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 70S.
AN ABRUPT WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH WITH HIGHS BACK IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
DUNN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS FINALLY SEEING SOME LONG-ANTICIPATED RAIN,
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SO FAR,
CENTRAL TEXAS HAS SEEN LESS COVERAGE SINCE THIS MORNING, BUT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO BETTER ORGANIZE THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES EAST OF I-35 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THE
SEVERE RISK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35 TO OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE
BETTER WIND PROFILES COULD INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
DRIVEN BAY DAYTIME HEATING. AS WE'VE BEEN MESSAGING FOR THIS
EVENT, THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 50-60 MPH
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL (UP TO QUARTER SIZE). THE TORNADO THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW (STILL NON-ZERO) ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS RISK IS HIGHER WHEN
YOU MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA. THE LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD FINALLY EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES FROM THE WEST.
A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH, WITH GUST UP TO 25 MPH. CONDITIONS
SHOULD EASE BY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE GOOD NEWS--WE WILL ENJOY SOME NICE FALL TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS STAYING IN THE 70S REGION WIDE. THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SAT/SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 146 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025/
/NEXT WEEK/
AFTER THE TASTE OF FALL THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL BEGIN THE WEEK ON THE WARM
SIDE AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION. DAYTIME MIXING OF 30-40 KTS
850 MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ALSO MIX TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH HIGHS THAT COULD
REACH THE LOW 90S ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER MAINLY WEST I-35 ON MONDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WELL RECEIVED COOL DOWN. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S. NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
80S. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ONE
MORE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME
LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AROUND 5Z IN THE METROPLEX AND 8Z AT WACO. NORTH WINDS
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 74 55 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 58 77 52 88 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
PARIS 52 71 49 82 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENTON 51 73 50 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 53 73 50 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 57 74 55 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 53 74 50 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 58 77 53 88 63 / 20 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 57 79 51 89 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 76 52 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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