522
FXUS64 KFWD 190616
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
116 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-35, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ON TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR A LAMPASAS TO CANTON LINE AT
PRESENT, WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S/70S ARE ANTICIPATED TO QUICKLY TUMBLE INTO THE 50S/60S
BY SUNRISE, WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COOLER. EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 MAKING IT ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE AUTUMN
FOR A CHANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ALMOST CHILLY WITH UPPER 40S
AND 50S EXPECTED.
A RAPID WEATHER CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS WINDS SWITCH BACK
TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
SOAR INTO THE MID 80S EAST TO MID 90S WEST - A NEARLY 20 DEGREE
JUMP FROM SUNDAY'S HIGHS. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE DAY, RH WILL STILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF
I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, ENDING OUR QUICK ONE-DAY WARMUP
FROM MONDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S/80S FOR BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/50S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE AREA, AND THESE WINDS PLUS LOW RH WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS TIME FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SHOWN BY
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING WAA AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY,
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAKING FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SINCE THIS IS STILL 5-6 DAYS
AWAY, DETAILS ON TIMING, STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, AND HOW MUCH RAIN
WE COULD SEE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
FROPA HAS MOVED THROUGH D10 AIRPORTS AND HAS RECENTLY PASSED KACT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z, WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND OR BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER THAT
TIME WHILE BECOMING MORE NNE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 20/00Z BUT REMAIN LIGHT. NO CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SKC
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 89 62 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 52 90 63 82 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
PARIS 49 84 58 78 47 / 5 0 0 0 0
DENTON 51 89 56 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 51 87 59 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 56 89 63 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 87 60 80 49 / 10 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 54 89 64 82 53 / 30 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 51 89 61 83 54 / 20 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 94 56 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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