454
FXUS64 KFWD 191823
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
123 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
- A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-35, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AFTER A LITTLE TASTE OF FALL WEATHER THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES
ARE STEADILY WARMING UP TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AS OF 1PM.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. PERFECT DAY TO SPEND SOME TIME
OUTDOORS! WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BRING A WARM AIRMASS TO THE REGION RESULTING IN HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER MAINLY WEST I-35. THIS IS WHERE
THE MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 20-35% IN THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THE RED RIVER MONDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE
I-30 BY MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY NORTH WINDS BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/
AFTER A WARM START OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE GOING TO
BACK TO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY AS BREEZY NORTH
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RH
VALUES DROPPING TO THE 15-25%, AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE LOCATIONS THAT MISSED THE RAIN ENTIRELY ON
SATURDAY. MAKE SURE TO AVOID ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. OTHERWISE, THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
BRAZOS VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SQUEEZING OUT ANY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE
HIGHEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (30-40%). TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL-DOWN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY
NEXT SATURDAY.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...SOUTH WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STEADILY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY VEER TO THE
SOUTH BEFORE 00Z. THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THEY INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z
MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE THIS IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 05-06Z) WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
IT.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 56 88 61 79 / 0 0 0 5 0
WACO 79 53 89 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 72 49 83 59 78 / 0 0 0 5 0
DENTON 74 52 88 55 78 / 0 0 0 5 0
MCKINNEY 75 52 86 58 79 / 0 0 0 5 0
DALLAS 77 57 88 63 80 / 0 0 0 5 0
TERRELL 75 50 87 59 79 / 0 0 0 5 0
CORSICANA 78 55 89 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 80 53 89 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 51 93 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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