869
FXUS64 KFWD 192358
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
- A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-35, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
DUNN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AFTER A LITTLE TASTE OF FALL WEATHER THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES
ARE STEADILY WARMING UP TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AS OF 1PM.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. PERFECT DAY TO SPEND SOME TIME
OUTDOORS! WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BRING A WARM AIRMASS TO THE REGION RESULTING IN HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER MAINLY WEST I-35. THIS IS WHERE
THE MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 20-35% IN THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THE RED RIVER MONDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BE NEAR I-30
BY MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY NORTH WINDS BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 123 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025/
/TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/
AFTER A WARM START OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE GOING BACK
TO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES
DROPPING TO 15-25%, AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT MISSED THE RAIN ENTIRELY ON SATURDAY. MAKE SURE TO
AVOID ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SQUEEZING OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE
HIGHEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (30-40%). TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL-DOWN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY
NEXT SATURDAY.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN
IMPACT TO AVIATION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT AT TIMES FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 89 61 79 54 / 0 0 5 0 0
WACO 53 89 64 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 49 84 59 78 46 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENTON 52 90 55 78 47 / 0 0 5 0 0
MCKINNEY 51 88 58 79 48 / 0 0 5 0 0
DALLAS 56 89 63 80 54 / 0 0 5 0 0
TERRELL 50 88 61 79 49 / 0 0 5 0 0
CORSICANA 54 90 65 82 53 / 0 0 5 0 0
TEMPLE 52 90 63 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 52 93 55 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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