110
FXUS64 KFWD 200947
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
447 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S
TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SOME
STRONG STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 214 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET, COOL NIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM A CHILLY 46 AT ATHENS UP TO 63 AT
BRECKENRIDGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES, AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY AS A
SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE BETWEEN A 1003MB SURFACE LOW
OVER KANSAS AND A 1018MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTH TEXAS. A
SOUTHWEST 925-850MB JET IS CORRESPONDINGLY FORECAST TO INCREASE
INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HALF THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH FULL SUNSHINE THESE WINDS SHOULD EASILY
MIX DOWN LEADING TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF TIME TODAY, BUT SINCE IT WILL BE BORDERLINE WILL HOLD
OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DRY LINE MIXES EASTWARD THROUGH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, DROPPING RH
DOWN INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE RISK ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND FIRE DANGER,
THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO OUR AREA WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID
80S OVER OUR EAST UP TO THE MID 90S IN OUR WEST.
THIS BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPS WILL GET KNOCKED BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S/60S BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S/40S WILL
BRING RH DOWN INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. THESE LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS AND MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT THE BRAZOS VALLEY
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS ANTICIPATED.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 214 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025/
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S EACH DAY
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND 50S/60S ALL OTHER
NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY, RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY ESE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/LOCATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS,
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY, BRINGING THE FIRST WAVE OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES, FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A GRADUAL EXIT OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
LATEST NBM HAS INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR LATE WEEK, WHILE
NBM QPF HAS ALSO GONE UP TO AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES IN OUR NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT IN TIME,
DON'T GET TOO EXCITED FOR THIS MUCH RAIN PANNING OUT YET. AS FAR
AS ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT SHOW MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG, FAIRLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 80 KNOTS, AND MODERATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 7.5 C/KM - SO A FEW STRONG STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE GONE BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A
DRY AND MILD END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SKC.
SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 15Z WITH
GUSTS NEAR/OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 23Z
BEFORE A FROPA BRING A SWITCH TO N/NNE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AFTER
03-04Z.
SHAMBURGER
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 61 79 53 81 / 0 5 0 0 0
WACO 90 64 82 53 81 / 0 5 0 0 5
PARIS 85 57 78 47 79 / 0 10 0 0 0
DENTON 90 55 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 88 57 79 48 80 / 0 5 0 0 0
DALLAS 89 63 81 55 81 / 0 5 0 0 0
TERRELL 89 60 80 48 81 / 0 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA 91 65 82 53 82 / 0 5 0 0 5
TEMPLE 90 63 82 53 82 / 0 5 0 0 5
MINERAL WELLS 94 55 81 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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