379
FXUS64 KFWD 202310
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
- LOW HUMIDITY (15-25%) AND BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES ON TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WE'LL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT RACE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FRONT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD APPROACH THE METROPLEX IN THE 10-11 PM
TIMEFRAME AND THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS AROUND 2-4 AM. BRISK
NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A SHOWER/STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT MAINLY IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE STRONG
MESOSCALE LIFT TAPS INTO BETTER MOISTURE. WE'LL KEEP POPS 10-20%
IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
DUNN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A MORE TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A CONSISTENT TRAIN OF COLD FRONTS SLATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL FEATURE
A WIDE ARRAY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOMORROW.
TODAY'S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY TWO DISTINCT WEATHER
SYSTEMS; ONE TO OUR NORTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR SOUTH. TO THE NORTH
OF US, AN ACTIVE AND POTENT JET STREAM WILL DRIVE A SHORTWAVE EAST
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPENING OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
OCCUR, INDUCING A RAPID NORTHWARD MASS RESPONSE. TO OUR SOUTH, AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE WE KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH.
THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS, IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35, WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 18-30%.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
EAST, IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY TURN OUR
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH THE FRONT'S LATER ARRIVAL. THE MORE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE WILL BE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WIND SPEEDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REMAIN A BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 15-22% RANGE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE WARM PER SE, THE BREEZY
AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
FIRE STARTS AND SPREAD GIVEN THE CURED FUELS.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 127 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD, MEANWHILE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SHIFTING/DEVELOPING SYSTEMS WILL YIELD A QUICK RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY,
WITH A FEW SUBTLE LEADING SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AT WHICH POINT, RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TO 50-80% ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
1500-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEPLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE.
FOR THAT REASON, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DRAW ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON WHETHER THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR AREA OR STALLS
OVER US. A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO A DRYING TREND
ON SATURDAY WHILE A STALLED FRONT MAY PROLONG THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A
COLD FRONT BEING THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH LATE EVENING. WE'LL KEEP
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG FRONT AROUND 4Z IN THE METROPLEX...BUT
THIS MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UP AN HOUR OR SO. WE'LL SEE HOW FAST
THE BOUNDARY ACCELERATES AFTER DARK. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH A BIT PRIOR TO FROPA WITH NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER/STORM NEAR AND EAST OF WACO OVERNIGHT,
BUT FOR NOW WE'LL MAINTAIN VFR WITH A FRONTAL TIMING AROUND 8Z.
VFR WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS BY
EVENING.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 79 54 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
WACO 63 82 52 82 60 / 5 0 0 5 0
PARIS 56 78 47 79 52 / 10 0 0 0 5
DENTON 53 78 47 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 55 79 48 80 56 / 5 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 61 81 55 82 61 / 5 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 59 81 48 81 55 / 10 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA 64 83 52 83 61 / 10 5 0 0 5
TEMPLE 62 83 51 82 61 / 5 0 0 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 81 47 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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