879
FXUS64 KFWD 210651
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
151 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
LEADING TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES THROUGHOUT THE REGION
TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STRONG STORMS AND ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TO A GUSTINE TO ITASCA TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS HOUR
AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED, IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID-MORNING FOR THE FRONT TO CLEAR OUR
SOUTHEAST CWA BORDER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING, AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY, WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ALSO
FILTERING AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 30S/40S AND RH FALLS INTO THE
15-25 PERCENT RANGE. IN ADDITION, DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THE DRIER AIR PLUS FULL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD, ELEVATED RISK FOR
WILDFIRE STARTS TODAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A RFD FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE DUE
TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
OUTSIDE OF THE METROPLEX URBAN HEAT ISLAND, UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, AND LOW TO MID 50S IN THE DFW AREA. TOMORROW
LOOKS TO BE QUITE A PLEASANT DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS, LOW RH, JUST A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS, AND HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANOTHER QUICK CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN GULF MOISTURE AND SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PLUS A FEW
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS MLCAPE WILL REACH 1500 J/KG.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING,
BUT INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW COULD STILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE H5 LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HIGH DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, EXACT COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE OVERALL SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE
SYSTEM BUT REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT IN TRACK AND LOCATION.
NONETHELESS, A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR POSSIBLE, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING ANYWHERE
FROM ONE HALF INCH TO AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, DON'T GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE HIGHER END
TOTALS PANNING OUT JUST YET AS FURTHER SHIFTS IN THE CUTOFF LOW
TRACK COULD ALTER THESE AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC AS PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO
THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE CUTOFF LOW. EVEN SO, MLCAPE UP TO
1500 J/KG, DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 70 KNOTS, AND LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE TO 7.5 C/KM COULD STILL FAVOR SOME MORE INTENSE STORMS.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ALL RAIN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE END OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE AND FALL-LIKE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF SHOWING A
VERY LARGE, NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY, FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED, THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLE
STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO STRONG WEST WINDS. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN SHIFTING FROM RUN TO RUN ON MODEL GUIDANCE,
HOWEVER, SO DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS IT REMAINS A WEEK AWAY.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SKC AT D10
AIRPORTS AND SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ACT EARLY THIS MORNING. FROPA HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS HOUR AND ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS KACT AROUND 0730Z. GUSTY N/NNE WINDS 12-18 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND VEERING MORE NE AFTER
23Z. A SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS IS EXPECTED AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 54 82 62 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 20
WACO 52 82 61 87 66 / 5 0 0 5 0
PARIS 47 79 54 77 61 / 10 0 0 0 5
DENTON 47 80 57 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 20
MCKINNEY 49 81 56 80 64 / 5 0 0 0 20
DALLAS 55 82 62 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 20
TERRELL 49 82 56 83 64 / 5 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 52 83 60 86 66 / 10 5 0 0 5
TEMPLE 52 82 60 88 65 / 0 0 0 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 48 83 59 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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